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orleans_us.txt
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orleans_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country orleans_us
Day 124
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.148 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.062 (1/day)
Population size (N) 8756
Initial number of cases (I0) 1128
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.06
Critical number of susceptible 8757
Final state
Final number of cases 7838
Final number of susceptibles 918
Daily forecast for 24-Jul-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 6409 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0851459 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 8.1 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 11
Acceleration phase 16 (days)
Deceleration phase 25 (days)
Total duration 41 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 17-Mar-2020
Turning point 02-Apr-2020
Start of steady growth 27-Apr-2020
Start of ending phase 08-Jun-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 124
Degrees of freedom 120
Root Mean Squared Error 653.847
R-Squared 0.9
Adjusted R-Squared 0.897
F-statistics vs. zero model 329.341
p-value 9.94719e-58
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 7162.54
Exit condition (1=OK) 1