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outagamie_us.txt
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outagamie_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country outagamie_us
Day 217
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.03 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.001 (1/day)
Population size (N) 50120
Initial number of cases (I0) 20
Basic reproduction number (R0) 34.808
Critical number of susceptible 50121
Final state
Final number of cases 50120
Final number of susceptibles 0
Daily forecast for 25-Oct-2020
Total 9358
Increase 219
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 49390 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0290933 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 23.8 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 267
Acceleration phase 69 (days)
Deceleration phase 70 (days)
Total duration 139 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 06-Oct-2020
Turning point 14-Dec-2020
Start of steady growth 22-Feb-2021
Start of ending phase 12-Jul-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 217
Degrees of freedom 213
Root Mean Squared Error 135.607
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 20215.1
p-value 3.23061e-261
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1979.13
Exit condition (1=OK) 0