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palm_beach_us.txt
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palm_beach_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country palm_beach_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.58 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.537 (1/day)
Population size (N) 339296
Initial number of cases (I0) 23
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.08
Critical number of susceptible 339296
Final state
Final number of cases 49251
Final number of susceptibles 290044
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 46797 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0429604 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 16.1 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 117
Acceleration phase 46 (days)
Deceleration phase 48 (days)
Total duration 94 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 01-Jun-2020
Turning point 17-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 02-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 05-Dec-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 1114.41
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 20633.6
p-value 3.4427e-264
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 16340.4
Exit condition (1=OK) 0