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passaic_us.txt
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passaic_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country passaic_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.321 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.156 (1/day)
Population size (N) 21850
Initial number of cases (I0) 65
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.048
Critical number of susceptible 21850
Final state
Final number of cases 17737
Final number of susceptibles 4112
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 14818 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.164586 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 4.2 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 30
Acceleration phase 12 (days)
Deceleration phase 15 (days)
Total duration 27 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 08-Apr-2020
Turning point 21-Apr-2020
Start of steady growth 06-May-2020
Start of ending phase 02-Jun-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 1265.78
R-Squared 0.941
Adjusted R-Squared 0.94
F-statistics vs. zero model 1341.84
p-value 7.04902e-139
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 18560
Exit condition (1=OK) 0