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philadelphia_us.txt
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philadelphia_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country philadelphia_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.195 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.189 (1/day)
Population size (N) 306555
Initial number of cases (I0) 1433
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.028
Critical number of susceptible 306555
Final state
Final number of cases 39042
Final number of susceptibles 267513
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 18897 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00619717 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 111.8 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 24
Acceleration phase 28 (days)
Deceleration phase 105 (days)
Total duration 133 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 18-Mar-2020
Turning point 15-Apr-2020
Start of steady growth 29-Jul-2020
Start of ending phase 09-Dec-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 1752.34
R-Squared 0.976
Adjusted R-Squared 0.975
F-statistics vs. zero model 2809.75
p-value 4.01104e-172
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 25694.4
Exit condition (1=OK) 0