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pope_us.txt
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pope_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country pope_us
Day 211
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.076 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.04 (1/day)
Population size (N) 3718
Initial number of cases (I0) 10
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.895
Critical number of susceptible 3719
Final state
Final number of cases 2857
Final number of susceptibles 861
Daily forecast for 19-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 2390 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0361569 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 19.2 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 133
Acceleration phase 56 (days)
Deceleration phase 68 (days)
Total duration 124 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 07-Jun-2020
Turning point 02-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 09-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 10-Feb-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 211
Degrees of freedom 207
Root Mean Squared Error 57.4092
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 16500.3
p-value 4.82616e-246
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 825.976
Exit condition (1=OK) 1