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providence_us.txt
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providence_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country providence_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.141 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.135 (1/day)
Population size (N) 146354
Initial number of cases (I0) 865
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.033
Critical number of susceptible 146355
Final state
Final number of cases 21123
Final number of susceptibles 125230
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 10550 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00525573 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 131.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 29
Acceleration phase 36 (days)
Deceleration phase 130 (days)
Total duration 166 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 16-Mar-2020
Turning point 20-Apr-2020
Start of steady growth 28-Aug-2020
Start of ending phase 10-Feb-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 1103.5
R-Squared 0.966
Adjusted R-Squared 0.966
F-statistics vs. zero model 1874.25
p-value 8.45907e-154
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 16180.5
Exit condition (1=OK) 0