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ramsey_us.txt
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ramsey_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country ramsey_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.328 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.314 (1/day)
Population size (N) 203344
Initial number of cases (I0) 67
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.045
Critical number of susceptible 203344
Final state
Final number of cases 18756
Final number of susceptibles 184588
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 16982 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0142932 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 48.5 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 155
Acceleration phase 105 (days)
Deceleration phase 124 (days)
Total duration 229 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 11-May-2020
Turning point 24-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 26-Dec-2020
Start of ending phase 12-Aug-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 391.348
R-Squared 0.992
Adjusted R-Squared 0.992
F-statistics vs. zero model 8150.95
p-value 4.47491e-221
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 5738.29
Exit condition (1=OK) 0