-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
rankin_us.txt
44 lines (44 loc) · 1.6 KB
/
rankin_us.txt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country rankin_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.055 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.018 (1/day)
Population size (N) 4470
Initial number of cases (I0) 21
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.982
Critical number of susceptible 4471
Final state
Final number of cases 4205
Final number of susceptibles 265
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3575 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0363957 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 19 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 132
Acceleration phase 56 (days)
Deceleration phase 68 (days)
Total duration 124 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 06-Jun-2020
Turning point 01-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 08-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 08-Feb-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 87.2005
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 17270.6
p-value 6.47997e-256
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1278.61
Exit condition (1=OK) 1