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richmond_city_us.txt
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richmond_city_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country richmond_city_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.642 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.627 (1/day)
Population size (N) 125984
Initial number of cases (I0) 16
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.023
Critical number of susceptible 125984
Final state
Final number of cases 6358
Final number of susceptibles 119625
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 5648 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0147105 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 47.1 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 125
Acceleration phase 91 (days)
Deceleration phase 113 (days)
Total duration 204 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 26-Apr-2020
Turning point 25-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 15-Nov-2020
Start of ending phase 07-Jun-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 123.873
R-Squared 0.995
Adjusted R-Squared 0.995
F-statistics vs. zero model 12955.7
p-value 1.20547e-241
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1812.1
Exit condition (1=OK) 0