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riverside_us.txt
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riverside_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country riverside_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.051 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.013 (1/day)
Population size (N) 71496
Initial number of cases (I0) 451
Basic reproduction number (R0) 3.808
Critical number of susceptible 71496
Final state
Final number of cases 69812
Final number of susceptibles 1683
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 60769 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0377255 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 18.4 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 124
Acceleration phase 54 (days)
Deceleration phase 64 (days)
Total duration 118 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 31-May-2020
Turning point 24-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 26-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 21-Jan-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 1026.96
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 37789.8
p-value 2.28911e-292
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 15058.2
Exit condition (1=OK) 0