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sacramento_us.txt
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sacramento_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country sacramento_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.261 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.219 (1/day)
Population size (N) 87807
Initial number of cases (I0) 10
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.189
Critical number of susceptible 87807
Final state
Final number of cases 26456
Final number of susceptibles 61351
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 24136 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0415556 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 16.7 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 143
Acceleration phase 49 (days)
Deceleration phase 52 (days)
Total duration 101 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 24-Jun-2020
Turning point 12-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 03-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 12-Jan-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 431.694
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 31868
p-value 1.99625e-284
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 6329.87
Exit condition (1=OK) 0