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saginaw_us.txt
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saginaw_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country saginaw_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.053 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.047 (1/day)
Population size (N) 37397
Initial number of cases (I0) 170
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.14
Critical number of susceptible 37398
Final state
Final number of cases 9929
Final number of susceptibles 27468
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 8408 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0067532 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 102.6 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 249
Acceleration phase 197 (days)
Deceleration phase 261 (days)
Total duration 458 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 12-May-2020
Turning point 26-Nov-2020
Start of steady growth 13-Aug-2021
Start of ending phase 14-Nov-2022
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 99.0693
R-Squared 0.991
Adjusted R-Squared 0.991
F-statistics vs. zero model 7495.28
p-value 2.12065e-216
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1449.26
Exit condition (1=OK) 0