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san_bernardino_us.txt
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san_bernardino_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country san_bernardino_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.066 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.023 (1/day)
Population size (N) 69580
Initial number of cases (I0) 173
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.838
Critical number of susceptible 69580
Final state
Final number of cases 64643
Final number of susceptibles 4936
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 54745 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0425923 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 16.3 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 127
Acceleration phase 48 (days)
Deceleration phase 58 (days)
Total duration 106 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 09-Jun-2020
Turning point 27-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 24-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 08-Jan-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 918.873
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 42341.9
p-value 1.6904e-296
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 13441.9
Exit condition (1=OK) 1