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san_luis_obispo_us.txt
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san_luis_obispo_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country san_luis_obispo_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.062 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.02 (1/day)
Population size (N) 4706
Initial number of cases (I0) 9
Basic reproduction number (R0) 3.03
Critical number of susceptible 4707
Final state
Final number of cases 4438
Final number of susceptibles 268
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3778 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0413191 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 16.8 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 137
Acceleration phase 49 (days)
Deceleration phase 60 (days)
Total duration 109 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 18-Jun-2020
Turning point 06-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 05-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 22-Jan-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 80.3039
R-Squared 0.997
Adjusted R-Squared 0.997
F-statistics vs. zero model 23769.4
p-value 9.93268e-270
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1174.75
Exit condition (1=OK) 0