-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
sangamon_us.txt
44 lines (44 loc) · 1.6 KB
/
sangamon_us.txt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country sangamon_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.084 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.066 (1/day)
Population size (N) 36315
Initial number of cases (I0) 23
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.266
Critical number of susceptible 36315
Final state
Final number of cases 14190
Final number of susceptibles 22124
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 12625 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.017703 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 39.2 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 270
Acceleration phase 113 (days)
Deceleration phase 124 (days)
Total duration 238 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 26-Aug-2020
Turning point 17-Dec-2020
Start of steady growth 21-Apr-2021
Start of ending phase 14-Dec-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 102.888
R-Squared 0.991
Adjusted R-Squared 0.991
F-statistics vs. zero model 7575
p-value 6.90922e-217
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1505.12
Exit condition (1=OK) 0