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santa_cruz_us.txt
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santa_cruz_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country santa_cruz_us
Day 193
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.129 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.045 (1/day)
Population size (N) 3083
Initial number of cases (I0) 7
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.834
Critical number of susceptible 3084
Final state
Final number of cases 2863
Final number of susceptibles 219
Daily forecast for 01-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 2425 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0835474 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 8.3 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 65
Acceleration phase 24 (days)
Deceleration phase 30 (days)
Total duration 54 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 02-May-2020
Turning point 26-May-2020
Start of steady growth 25-Jun-2020
Start of ending phase 18-Aug-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 193
Degrees of freedom 189
Root Mean Squared Error 53.3251
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 28950
p-value 2.31232e-251
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 733.106
Exit condition (1=OK) 1