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seminole_us.txt
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seminole_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country seminole_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.1 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.038 (1/day)
Population size (N) 10517
Initial number of cases (I0) 4
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.605
Critical number of susceptible 10517
Final state
Final number of cases 9525
Final number of susceptibles 992
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 8020 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0615935 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 11.3 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 114
Acceleration phase 33 (days)
Deceleration phase 41 (days)
Total duration 74 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 11-Jun-2020
Turning point 14-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 24-Aug-2020
Start of ending phase 06-Nov-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 269.643
R-Squared 0.995
Adjusted R-Squared 0.995
F-statistics vs. zero model 14409
p-value 1.70026e-247
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 3953.73
Exit condition (1=OK) 1