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shawnee_us.txt
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shawnee_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country shawnee_us
Day 216
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.077 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.049 (1/day)
Population size (N) 6296
Initial number of cases (I0) 21
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.577
Critical number of susceptible 6296
Final state
Final number of cases 3999
Final number of susceptibles 2296
Daily forecast for 24-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3387 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0282877 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 24.5 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 147
Acceleration phase 71 (days)
Deceleration phase 83 (days)
Total duration 154 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 06-Jun-2020
Turning point 16-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 07-Nov-2020
Start of ending phase 10-Apr-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 216
Degrees of freedom 212
Root Mean Squared Error 47.6682
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 36946.6
p-value 6.79435e-288
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 694.06
Exit condition (1=OK) 0