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shelby_us.txt
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shelby_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country shelby_us
Day 214
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.058 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.031 (1/day)
Population size (N) 13512
Initial number of cases (I0) 55
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.845
Critical number of susceptible 13513
Final state
Final number of cases 10177
Final number of susceptibles 3334
Daily forecast for 22-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 8516 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0268068 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 25.9 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 163
Acceleration phase 75 (days)
Deceleration phase 91 (days)
Total duration 166 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 17-Jun-2020
Turning point 01-Sep-2020
Start of steady growth 30-Nov-2020
Start of ending phase 16-May-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 214
Degrees of freedom 210
Root Mean Squared Error 191.102
R-Squared 0.993
Adjusted R-Squared 0.993
F-statistics vs. zero model 10657.1
p-value 3.95952e-229
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2769.33
Exit condition (1=OK) 0