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sonoma_us.txt
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sonoma_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country sonoma_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.048 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.012 (1/day)
Population size (N) 10943
Initial number of cases (I0) 28
Basic reproduction number (R0) 4.053
Critical number of susceptible 10943
Final state
Final number of cases 10741
Final number of susceptibles 202
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 9407 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0361956 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 19.2 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 154
Acceleration phase 56 (days)
Deceleration phase 66 (days)
Total duration 122 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 28-Jun-2020
Turning point 23-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 29-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 28-Feb-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 132.818
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 39254.1
p-value 3.87335e-294
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1947.49
Exit condition (1=OK) 0