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southwest_utah_us.txt
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southwest_utah_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country southwest_utah_us
Day 191
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.517 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.496 (1/day)
Population size (N) 70479
Initial number of cases (I0) 19
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.041
Critical number of susceptible 70479
Final state
Final number of cases 5968
Final number of susceptibles 64510
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 5409 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0206376 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 33.6 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 107
Acceleration phase 73 (days)
Deceleration phase 86 (days)
Total duration 158 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 19-Apr-2020
Start of acceleration 23-May-2020
Turning point 04-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 28-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 05-Apr-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 191
Degrees of freedom 187
Root Mean Squared Error 240.978
R-Squared 0.981
Adjusted R-Squared 0.981
F-statistics vs. zero model 3098.63
p-value 4.06073e-159
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 3295.33
Exit condition (1=OK) 0