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starr_us.txt
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starr_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country starr_us
Day 215
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.115 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.059 (1/day)
Population size (N) 4642
Initial number of cases (I0) 1
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.965
Critical number of susceptible 4643
Final state
Final number of cases 3655
Final number of susceptibles 986
Daily forecast for 23-Oct-2020
Total 3554
Increase 4
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3059 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0565852 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 12.2 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 124
Acceleration phase 37 (days)
Deceleration phase 44 (days)
Total duration 80 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 18-Jun-2020
Turning point 24-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 06-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 25-Nov-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 215
Degrees of freedom 211
Root Mean Squared Error 74.663
R-Squared 0.997
Adjusted R-Squared 0.997
F-statistics vs. zero model 24827.8
p-value 1.39597e-268
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1084.54
Exit condition (1=OK) 1