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tom_green_us.txt
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tom_green_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country tom_green_us
Day 217
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.103 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.042 (1/day)
Population size (N) 4672
Initial number of cases (I0) 1
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.48
Critical number of susceptible 4672
Final state
Final number of cases 4158
Final number of susceptibles 513
Daily forecast for 25-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3492 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0616239 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 11.2 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 126
Acceleration phase 33 (days)
Deceleration phase 41 (days)
Total duration 74 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 22-Jun-2020
Turning point 26-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 04-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 17-Nov-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 217
Degrees of freedom 213
Root Mean Squared Error 155.437
R-Squared 0.991
Adjusted R-Squared 0.991
F-statistics vs. zero model 7747.54
p-value 4.04392e-217
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2268.52
Exit condition (1=OK) 1