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tulsa_us.txt
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tulsa_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country tulsa_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.073 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.038 (1/day)
Population size (N) 30454
Initial number of cases (I0) 64
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.911
Critical number of susceptible 30455
Final state
Final number of cases 23534
Final number of susceptibles 6920
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 19691 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0349535 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 19.8 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 146
Acceleration phase 59 (days)
Deceleration phase 70 (days)
Total duration 129 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 17-Jun-2020
Turning point 15-Aug-2020
Start of steady growth 24-Oct-2020
Start of ending phase 02-Mar-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 451.534
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.996
F-statistics vs. zero model 17451
p-value 2.13043e-256
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 6620.8
Exit condition (1=OK) 1