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utah_us.txt
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utah_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country utah_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.056 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.039 (1/day)
Population size (N) 554309
Initial number of cases (I0) 261
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.418
Critical number of susceptible 554309
Final state
Final number of cases 291666
Final number of susceptibles 262642
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total 28645
Increase 425
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 252606 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0164552 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 42.1 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 351
Acceleration phase 125 (days)
Deceleration phase 140 (days)
Total duration 265 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 03-Nov-2020
Turning point 08-Mar-2021
Start of steady growth 26-Jul-2021
Start of ending phase 16-Apr-2022
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 517.384
R-Squared 0.996
Adjusted R-Squared 0.995
F-statistics vs. zero model 15716.6
p-value 1.56419e-251
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 7586.34
Exit condition (1=OK) 0