-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
ventura_us.txt
44 lines (44 loc) · 1.6 KB
/
ventura_us.txt
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country ventura_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.065 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.023 (1/day)
Population size (N) 16338
Initial number of cases (I0) 38
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.791
Critical number of susceptible 16339
Final state
Final number of cases 15113
Final number of susceptibles 1224
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 12783 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0420316 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 16.5 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 130
Acceleration phase 49 (days)
Deceleration phase 59 (days)
Total duration 108 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 11-Jun-2020
Turning point 30-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 27-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 13-Jan-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 187.935
R-Squared 0.999
Adjusted R-Squared 0.999
F-statistics vs. zero model 54413
p-value 2.32529e-309
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2755.67
Exit condition (1=OK) 1