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virginia_beach_us.txt
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virginia_beach_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country virginia_beach_us
Day 217
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.059 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.011 (1/day)
Population size (N) 7831
Initial number of cases (I0) 13
Basic reproduction number (R0) 5.32
Critical number of susceptible 7832
Final state
Final number of cases 7792
Final number of susceptibles 38
Daily forecast for 25-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 7021 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0481783 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 14.4 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 127
Acceleration phase 42 (days)
Deceleration phase 48 (days)
Total duration 90 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 15-Jun-2020
Turning point 27-Jul-2020
Start of steady growth 13-Sep-2020
Start of ending phase 12-Dec-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 217
Degrees of freedom 213
Root Mean Squared Error 244.372
R-Squared 0.992
Adjusted R-Squared 0.992
F-statistics vs. zero model 9870.17
p-value 3.14783e-228
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 3566.49
Exit condition (1=OK) 0