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washtenaw_us.txt
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washtenaw_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country washtenaw_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.015 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.008 (1/day)
Population size (N) 510652
Initial number of cases (I0) 541
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.865
Critical number of susceptible 510652
Final state
Final number of cases 386547
Final number of susceptibles 124104
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 323917 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.00706654 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 98.1 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 815
Acceleration phase 291 (days)
Deceleration phase 347 (days)
Total duration 638 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 27-Aug-2021
Turning point 15-Jun-2022
Start of steady growth 28-May-2023
Start of ending phase 24-Feb-2025
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 175.085
R-Squared 0.98
Adjusted R-Squared 0.979
F-statistics vs. zero model 3457.15
p-value 1.38572e-181
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 2567.25
Exit condition (1=OK) 0