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west_virginia.txt
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west_virginia.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country west_virginia
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.081 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.063 (1/day)
Population size (N) 136825
Initial number of cases (I0) 155
Basic reproduction number (R0) 1.289
Critical number of susceptible 136825
Final state
Final number of cases 57001
Final number of susceptibles 79823
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 50313 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0182579 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 38 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 238
Acceleration phase 109 (days)
Deceleration phase 121 (days)
Total duration 229 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 29-Jul-2020
Turning point 15-Nov-2020
Start of steady growth 16-Mar-2021
Start of ending phase 31-Oct-2021
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 252.313
R-Squared 0.998
Adjusted R-Squared 0.998
F-statistics vs. zero model 44370.7
p-value 1.13947e-298
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 3691.02
Exit condition (1=OK) 0