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westchester_us.txt
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westchester_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country westchester_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.106 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.038 (1/day)
Population size (N) 39401
Initial number of cases (I0) 5338
Basic reproduction number (R0) 2.434
Critical number of susceptible 39401
Final state
Final number of cases 36975
Final number of susceptibles 2425
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 30892 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0683858 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 10.1 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 16
Acceleration phase 22 (days)
Deceleration phase 32 (days)
Total duration 54 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 16-Mar-2020
Turning point 07-Apr-2020
Start of steady growth 09-May-2020
Start of ending phase 03-Jul-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 1202.8
R-Squared 0.979
Adjusted R-Squared 0.979
F-statistics vs. zero model 3215.51
p-value 2.83859e-178
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 17637.4
Exit condition (1=OK) 1