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woodbury_us.txt
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woodbury_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country woodbury_us
Day 219
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.153 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.046 (1/day)
Population size (N) 4716
Initial number of cases (I0) 3
Basic reproduction number (R0) 3.331
Critical number of susceptible 4717
Final state
Final number of cases 4523
Final number of susceptibles 192
Daily forecast for 27-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 3884 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.107236 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 6.5 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 64
Acceleration phase 19 (days)
Deceleration phase 23 (days)
Total duration 42 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 06-May-2020
Turning point 25-May-2020
Start of steady growth 17-Jun-2020
Start of ending phase 29-Jul-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 219
Degrees of freedom 215
Root Mean Squared Error 955.179
R-Squared 0.762
Adjusted R-Squared 0.758
F-statistics vs. zero model 264.587
p-value 7.04888e-72
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 13960.3
Exit condition (1=OK) 0