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yakima_us.txt
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yakima_us.txt
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Epidemic modeling by susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model
Country yakima_us
Day 218
Estimated the SIR model parameters
Contact rate (beta) 0.064 (1/day)
Removal rate (gamma) 0.018 (1/day)
Population size (N) 12401
Initial number of cases (I0) 168
Basic reproduction number (R0) 3.443
Critical number of susceptible 12402
Final state
Final number of cases 11982
Final number of susceptibles 419
Daily forecast for 26-Oct-2020
Total NaN
Increase NaN
Estimated logistic model parameters
Epidemic size (K) 10328 (cases)
Epidemic rate (r) 0.0453176 (1/day)
Initial doubling time 15.3 (day)
Estimated duration (days)
Turning day 84
Acceleration phase 44 (days)
Deceleration phase 54 (days)
Total duration 98 (days)
Estimated datums
Outbreak 22-Mar-2020
Start of acceleration 01-May-2020
Turning point 14-Jun-2020
Start of steady growth 07-Aug-2020
Start of ending phase 13-Nov-2020
Statistics
Number of observations 218
Degrees of freedom 214
Root Mean Squared Error 96.6648
R-Squared 1
Adjusted R-Squared 0.999
F-statistics vs. zero model 143570
p-value 0
Method
Total cases weight 1
Infection rate weight 0
Objective function value 1414.09
Exit condition (1=OK) 1