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Fixed typo in post 'laplaces rule of succession'
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Ashe committed Jul 21, 2022
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## A scientific certainty

In 1840, [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre-Simon_Laplace)[@laplace1840essai] posed the following question :
In 1840, [Pierre-Simon Laplace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre-Simon_Laplace)[@laplace1840essai] posed the following question:

> What is the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow?
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The reason the sunrise problem is even worth considering can be discovered by simply asking *what if it didn't?* --- what is it we're really asking? If the chance of the sun rising is 100%, then what is the purpose of contemplating the scenario where it didn't?

What we're actually questionning here is not whether the sun rises, but in fact whether the *probability* of the sun rising is actually what we expect --- this is a question of the probability of another probability!
What we're actually questioning here is not whether the sun rises, but in fact whether the *probability* of the sun rising is actually what we expect --- this is a question of the probability of another probability!

## Laplace's answer to the sunrise problem

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## Challenge nudger

Another time I've used Laplace's rule of succession was while I was at work! I was working on a piece of UI that 'nudged' the player towards content in the game. Players had vast amounts of challenges going on simultaneously, such as 'kill 50 players', 'win 4 matches' and 'walk 1000km'. The problem? Which challenge has the highest probability of being relevant to the player?
Another time I've used Laplace's rule of succession was while I was at work! I was working on a piece of UI that 'nudged' the player towards content in the game. Players had vast amounts of challenges going on simultaneously, such as 'kill 50 players', 'win 4 matches' and 'walk 1000km'. The problem: determining which challenge has the highest probability of being relevant to the player.

After the review chapter, I'm sure you can figure out why I chose to apply the rule here; how do we compare the player's progress on these challenges when they have completely different requirements in terms of difficulty and time to complete.
After the review chapter, I'm sure you can figure out why I chose to apply the rule here; how do we compare the player's progress on these challenges when they have completely different requirements in terms of difficulty and time to complete?

> Quiz time! Which challenge would you consider to be closest to completion?
>
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I hope you enjoyed reading this post; this is the first time I've written about something other than programming specifically, but I personally have found if very handy for more things than I've listed. I hope that after giving it some thought, you too might find the answer's that Laplace provides useful!

Make it a good one!
Make it a good one!

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