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Validate model estimates of redacted EIA fuel prices #1767

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3 tasks
Tracked by #1708
zaneselvans opened this issue Jul 18, 2022 · 0 comments
Open
3 tasks
Tracked by #1708

Validate model estimates of redacted EIA fuel prices #1767

zaneselvans opened this issue Jul 18, 2022 · 0 comments
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@TrentonBush
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analysis Data analysis tasks that involve actually using PUDL to figure things out, like calculating MCOE. data-repair Interpolating or extrapolating data that we don't actually have. eia923 Anything having to do with EIA Form 923 inframundo
Milestone
2023 Spring

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@zaneselvans
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Attempt to validate the fuel price estimates generated in #1766:

  • Calculate the predicted aggregate MMBTU weighted fuel prices, and compare them against the available reported fuel price aggregates. Hopefully the predicted aggregate values are close to those reported, or at least not systematically biased high or low.
  • Compare the aggregate + predicted residuals vs. directly predicted prices in data rich regions to verify that the residual predictions are comparable in quality to the more straightforward method in an area with lots of data.
  • Knock out a large region of the country and try to predict its prices based on learned price variations from other regions, plus the aggregate values, to provide some confidence that inter-regional residuals are informative.
@zaneselvans zaneselvans added eia923 Anything having to do with EIA Form 923 analysis Data analysis tasks that involve actually using PUDL to figure things out, like calculating MCOE. data-repair Interpolating or extrapolating data that we don't actually have. labels Jul 18, 2022
@zaneselvans zaneselvans mentioned this issue Jul 18, 2022
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@zaneselvans zaneselvans added this to the 2023Q2 milestone Mar 12, 2023
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@TrentonBush TrentonBush

Labels
analysis Data analysis tasks that involve actually using PUDL to figure things out, like calculating MCOE. data-repair Interpolating or extrapolating data that we don't actually have. eia923 Anything having to do with EIA Form 923 inframundo
Projects
Catalyst Megaproject
Status: Backlog
Milestone
2023 Spring
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@zaneselvans @jdangerx @TrentonBush