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Motivating Naive Bayes:

1% of women at age forty who participate in routine screening have breast cancer. 80% of women with breast cancer will get positive mammographies. 9.6% of women without breast cancer will also get positive mammographies. A woman in this age group had a positive mammography in a routine screening. What is the probability that she actually has breast cancer?

  • Prior: 1% of women at age forty have breast cancer.
  • Posterior: Probability woman has breast cancer