COVID-19 trajectory analysis

This project imports all available data for cases, tests, deaths, mobility, hospitalizations, strigency, lockdowns, and more for countries, UK nations and US States.

The major contribution is the observation of the V-shape trajectories during social distancing measures and vaccination. It is shown that using the decay and rebound slopes the basic reproduction number (Ro) can be recovered. This was supported by the observed "herd immuntiy", i.e., the percent of the population with two doses at which the infection rates began to decay exponentially.

Another main result suggests that SARS-CoV-2 tends to converge on a dynamic steady-state, and moreover, appear to reach similar rates in all countries when normalizing for population density.