Skip to content
New issue

Have a question about this project? Sign up for a free GitHub account to open an issue and contact its maintainers and the community.

By clicking “Sign up for GitHub”, you agree to our terms of service and privacy statement. We’ll occasionally send you account related emails.

Already on GitHub? Sign in to your account

There is no option to predict future data in c# library? #114

Open
dipak10 opened this issue Jan 2, 2018 · 3 comments
Open

There is no option to predict future data in c# library? #114

dipak10 opened this issue Jan 2, 2018 · 3 comments

Comments

@dipak10
Copy link

dipak10 commented Jan 2, 2018

Hi
i am currently making demo NN for predicting stock price from previous data that is in CSV. now what happening is suppose i have data from 2009 to 2017 in csv. so NN is currently able to predict till 2017 only. it can not predict on future dates.
Also it is correct NN? or Wrong?

@PeterPann23
Copy link

Hi,

You will need to create an updated version of the training the data,

@BogusException
Copy link

BogusException commented Jul 13, 2019

OR... You can consider your training data valid for today.

Have you tried using your actual data since the training series stopped in 2017-today?
Your model may still be valid, but it lily isn't. In all likelihood you are also thinking that a standard nn on time series data can do pattern matching. On the whole, this is not true.
Just saying, be sure you are asking something of a method/model that can give it to you. 😀

@BogusException
Copy link

Actually, this situation could be very useful, even if unintentional. Getting public stock prices online is easy, but with what you have now, you can do a scatter plot/R2 score for the model, using the last 30 days or so of your data.
Then, create a random walk (stochastic) for like a year (365d), using it as if it were the actual data for the NEXT 365 days after your stock price data stopped in 2017.

How did your model do against a random walk? If you are using just one input series, I'll bet you will be surprised.

So this is my wisdom, as it were: your models will do just as well if you use data to 2017, to 2019, or CALL your data to 2017: "to 2019".

The algorithms don't care. It is just time series. And in all likelihood the actual price of a stock is immaterial, as you are likely looking for changes that are relative to a previous value.

If you are evaluating with scatter plots only, beware how misleading they can be for accuracy. This is why I suggested the enlightening exercise above.

Good luck!

Sign up for free to join this conversation on GitHub. Already have an account? Sign in to comment
Labels
None yet
Projects
None yet
Development

No branches or pull requests

3 participants