An effort to model trends of monthly temperatures around Finland. The main interest is on seasonal trends after 1980 and on the overall trend and its uncertainty.
Work in progress. Current model:
- Data: NASA GISS, homogenized.
- Trends by month, common to stations. Baseline temperature per month-station combination.
- Handles missing data.
- MA(1) for temporal autocorrelation.
- Covariance for stations.
- Residual variance varies by station, month.
- Latitudinal and longitudinal variation in trends (not significant).
