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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<title>The Causes and Consequences of Extreme Party Entrance</title>
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<h1 class="mx-auto my-0 text-uppercase">Politics of Extreme Party Entrance</h1>
<h2 class="text-white-50 mx-auto mt-2 mb-5">Research project funded by a Swiss National Science Foundation Ambizione Grant for four years and carried out by <a href="http://danbischof.com/">Daniel Bischof</a> </h2>
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<h2 class="text-white mb-4">The Causes & Consequences of Extreme Party Entrance</h2>
<p class="text-white-50 text-justify">In this SNSF Ambizione project (2019-2023, 690'000 CHF), my research team and I try to understand the causes and consequences of radical party emergence. Radical candidates and parties - here defined as parties located at the very extremes of an imagined political left-right scale - are on the rise in democracies. Most recently, Germany experienced the entry of the radical right party AfD into parliament (2017), while in Spain (Podemos) and Greece (Syriza) radical left parties have entered parliament or enjoy governmental office. Such events of radical party entry are destined to have crucial consequences for the political and economic landscapes in modern democracies: established parties might adapt their agendas and positions in an effort to contain the voter potential of the new radical competitor; radical parties could influence media agendas in a disproportionately severe way; public priorities are likely to polarize as a result; and governments are likely to develop policies (e.g. local investment policies) to contain the electoral threat of radical party emergence. This project seeks to research the aforementioned consequences by collecting and analyzing a rich amount of original data (e.g. electoral, textual and geo-coded).
<br>
<br>
<font size="5"> To learn more about the research questions, writings and findings of the project please scroll down. </font>
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<h4>Research Questions: <br>
The project is built on <b>five</b> key research blocks
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<h4 class="text-white">Causes</h4>
<p class="mb-0 text-white-50">How do extreme parties emerge in the first place? How do these parties successfully mobilize their activists? Which role does social media play to simplify meetings? Do cultural components play a role when and where extreme parties successfully emerge? </p>
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<h4 class="text-white">Societal Consequences</h4>
<p class="mb-0 text-white-50">Does the entrance of extreme parties into parliaments affect public opinion? Does it legitimate extreme opinions amongst the public? And, do other parts of the public mobilize against extreme opinions?</p>
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<h4 class="text-white">Political Consequences</h4>
<p class="mb-0 text-white-50">Does the entrance of extreme parties into parliament affect other parties? And if so, do parties vary in their reactions to the extreme competitor?</p>
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<h4 class="text-white">Comparison through Time</h4>
<p class="mb-0 text-white-50">How do today's extreme parties and societies compare to prominent historic cases? Which strategies, campaign slogans and rhetoric of today's extreme parties are influenced by the behavior of prominent role models in the past? </p>
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<h1 class="my-4">Writings
<small>Publications & Working Papers</small>
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<h3> <b> Do Voters Polarize when Radical Parties Enter Parliament? </b> </h3>
<p> <font size="3"> (with Markus Wagner), <i>American Journal of Political Science</i>: forthcoming. </font> </p>
<p>We argue that the elite polarization as signalled by radical parties’ first entrance into parliament leads to public polarization. The presence of radical voices on the right has polarizing effects, illustrating how such institutional recognition and legitimation can have a far-reaching impact on society.</p>
<a class="btn btn-primary" href="pdf/BW_RadicalParty_AJPS.pdf">PDF</a>
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<h3> <b> How Parties Organize from the Grounds: The Genesis of the Movimento 5 Stelle </b> </h3>
<p> <font size="3"> (with Thomas Kurer) </font> </p>
<p> Whether voters’ online activities translate into the offline sphere of politics and elections is an ongoing debate. We suggest that online communication is an important tool to connect and voice local interests, which are then mobilized by traditional on-the-ground party activity. To test this argument, we study the impact of the populist Movimento Cinque Stelle (M5S) on the rejection of the 2016 constitutional referendum in Italy. The movement’s unusual practice to coordinate activities on a public event platform provides a unique opportunity to collect the complete event history of a modern political party. We merge this data consisting of over 200,000 geo-coded meetings by 1,000 local chapters with referendum results and individual panel data. Relying on regression, matching, and instrumental variable models, we find a small but consistent effect of M5S activity on the referendum outcome. Our findings have important implications for our understanding of the internet’s impact on elections and politics more generally. </p>
<a class="btn btn-primary" href="pdf/BK_M5S.pdf">PDF</a>
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<h3> <b> Left Behind Communities and the Radical-Right: Do Peripheral Cultures Vote for the Radical Right in Germany? </b> </h3>
<p> <font size="3"> (with Hanno Hilbig & Daniel Ziblatt) </font> </p>
<p> What explains the radical right's electoral success? We propose that voters in "parochial" regions are more predisposed to voting for radical-right parties. We define "parochialism" as a geographic community where voters possess strong place-based social identities characterized by four attributes: low contact with outsiders; strong in-group ties; hostility towards outsiders; and, above all, high dialectal distance from the national standard language. We measure place-based social identity with 725,000 responses to a unique survey of regional German dialects. Using aggregate and individual-level data, we demonstrate that dialectal distance from the national standard language strongly predicts voting for the radical-right AfD party. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we clarify the concept of place-based social identity and its connection to parochialism as a source of radical-right voting. Second, drawing on recent research in socio-linguistics, we demonstrate that dialects are a useful measure of social identity not previously used to explain political behavior. </p>
<a class="btn btn-primary" href="pdf/ZHB_Dialect.pdf">PDF</a>
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<img class="img-fluid rounded mb-3 mb-md-0" src="img/radikal.jpg" alt="">
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<h3> <b> When Democracies Economically Punish Voters — Evidence from Employment Bans in Germany </b> </h3>
<p> <font size="3"> (with Vicente Valentim) </font> </p>
<p> How can states counter growing political extremism? We look at the effect of states persecuting radical individuals by studying the case of the radical decree in Germany. Implemented in 1972, this policy allowed individuals with connections to extremist groups to be banned from working in the public sector. We argue that this policy might have backfired, increasing extremist behavior and reducing voting for the incumbent. Drawing upon a newly collected dataset of individuals targeted by the bans, we run difference-in-differences models to estimate the effect of such bans on the political behavior of German citizens. We also look at the long term effects of the bans by looking at its effects on reducing the vote for the far-right party AfD, formed four decades after the policy was first implemented. In future iterations of the paper, we intend to enrich our findings by contacting and interviewing individuals targeted by the bans. Our findings have implications for the repertoire of policies that states can implement to deter extremist behavior and safeguard democracy. </p>
<a class="btn btn-primary" >Work in Progress</a>
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<img class="img-fluid rounded mb-3 mb-md-0" src="img/BW_AfD.jpg" alt="">
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<h3> <b> Does exposure to radical right marches affect voting and political preferences? </b> </h3>
<p> Politicians and journalists frequently emphasize that radical right grassroots mobilization matters for elections and preferences in exposed communities. The organizers of these marches explicitly seek to provide ``safe spaces'' for divergent, radical positions and, thereby, attempt to change the local perception of support for these radical views. Focusing on the German case and combining geo-coded protest data derived from the German security services with election results and public opinion data, I test these arguments employing difference-in-differences, matching and instrumental variable models. I find robust evidence that radical right marches affect elections and support for nationalism in exposed communities. </p>
<a class="btn btn-primary" >Work in Progress</a>
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<img class="img-fluid rounded mb-3 mb-md-0" src="img/SB_Reden.png" alt="">
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<h3> <b> Against the globalist class: Does the Alternative for Germany borrow from Hitler? </b> </h3>
<p> <font size="3"> (with Judith Spirig) </font> </p>
<p> Pundits and journalists suggest that some of the language and images used by radical right parties are reminiscent of speeches of fascist politicians in pre-WWII times. Most prominently Alexander Gauland, leader of the German Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), has been accused of having borrowed from Hitler. We test these allegations using the full set of Hitler’s speeches between 1925 and 1933 and the speeches of several AfD proponents -- including Gauland. </p>
<a class="btn btn-primary" >Work in Progress</a>
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<img class="img-fluid rounded mb-3 mb-md-0" src="img/gewissen.jpg" alt="">
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<h3> <b> The Political Legacies of Military Service: Evidence From a Natural Experiment </b> </h3>
<p> Does military service affect soldiers' civilian life and political attitudes after service? While a rich body of research investigates the effects of combat participation on draftees' attitudes, we know little about the effects of military service in the absence of combat. However, a widely shared concern is that the military socializes its draftees into authoritarian values running orthogonal to the values of civilians' lives in democracies. I identify the causal effect of compulsory military service on recruits' political attitudes by leveraging the quasi-random assignment of the re-introduced draft in Germany in 1956. Using several data sources I do not find any effects of past military service on current political attitudes. On the contrary, my findings suggest that the introduction of civilian service and suspension of compulsory service make a selection of more conservatively-minded into the army ever more likely. These findings imply that processes of examination and all-encompassing service might forestall such unwanted selection processes based on political ideology. </p>
<a class="btn btn-primary" >Work in Progress</a>
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<h3> <a href="http://danbischof.com/">Daniel Bischof</a> <br>
<small>Principal Investigator</small>
</h3>
<p>Associate Professor <br> @Department of Political Science <br> <i>Aarhus University</i> </p>
<p>Ambizione Grant Holder <br> @Department of Political Science <br> <i>University of Zurich</i> </p>
</div>
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<h3> <a href="https://www.wagnermarkus.net">Markus Wagner</a> <br>
<small>Associated Researcher & Advisory Board Member</small>
</h3>
<p>Professor <br> @Department of Government <br> <i>University of Vienna</i> </p>
</div>
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<img class="rounded-circle img-fluid d-block mx-auto" src="img/FF.jpg" alt="">
<h3> <a href="http://www.florianfoos.net">Florian Foos</a> <br>
<small>Associated Researcher</small>
</h3>
<p>Assistant Professor <br> @Department of Political Science <br> <i>London School of Economics & Political Science</i> </p>
</div>
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<img class="rounded-circle img-fluid d-block mx-auto" src="img/NP.jpg" alt="">
<h3>Natalia Podany <br>
<small>Research Assistant</small>
</h3>
<p>BA Student <br> @Department of Political Science <br> <i>University of Zurich</i> </p>
</div>
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<img class="rounded-circle img-fluid d-block mx-auto" src="img/LA.jpg" alt="">
<h3>Lukas Aebi <br>
<small>Research Assistant</small>
</h3>
<p>BA Student <br> @Department of Political Science <br> <i>University of Zurich</i> </p>
</div>
<div class="col-lg-4 col-sm-6 text-center mb-4">
<img class="rounded-circle img-fluid d-block mx-auto" src="img/LT.jpg" alt="">
<h3> Lara Theiler <br>
<small>Research Assistant</small>
</h3>
<p>BA Student <br> @Department of Political Science <br> <i>University of Zurich</i> </p>
</div>
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<h3> Susana Tavares <br>
<small>Research Assistant</small>
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<p>BA Student <br> @Department of Political Science <br> <i>University of Zurich</i> </p>
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<h2 class="my-4">Former Members:</h2>
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<h3><a href="https://www.ipw.unibe.ch/ueber_uns/personen/woeffray_thoda/index_ger.html">Théoda Woeffray</a> <br>
<small>Research Assistant <br> (2019-2020) </small>
</h3>
<p>Now: PhD Student <br> @Department of Political Science <br> <i>University of Bern</i> </p>
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<h3>Sebastian Weber <br>
<small>Research Assistant <br> (2019-2020) </small>
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<p>Now: MA Student <br> @Department of Political Science <br> <i>University of Bern</i> </p>
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<h3> <a href="">XXX</a> <br>
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<p> XXX <br> @Department of XXX <br> <i>University of XXX</i> </p>
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<h3> <a href="https://www.thomas-meyer.at">Thomas Meyer</a> <br>
<small>Advisory Board Member</small>
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<p>Associate Professor of Political Science <br> @Department of Government <br> <i>University of Vienna</i> </p>
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