After containing the first wave of COVID-19, making projections will become increasingly difficult, as we will have frequent regime changes (we will enter the "dance" phase of the The Hammer and the Dance). Thus, we must move on to a monitoring and control strategy, and for that, we need a good metric.
We believe that the effective breeding number Rt is the answer. Inspired by the Kevin Systrom article, we reproduce the model of the article in this notebook and we must propose others in the future.
Suggestions are welcome!!!!
PS: the notebook file still has comments in portuguese (BR).