-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
/
Predicting Change in Instability.R
159 lines (120 loc) · 5.24 KB
/
Predicting Change in Instability.R
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
################### Predicting Change in Instability #################################
# Can we predict future changes in State Fragility using the current state of the
# Fragile State Index (FSI)?
# Setwd
setwd("C:/Users/Ian/Desktop/Geo Instability/FSI")
#Installing packages
install.packages("readxl")
library(readxl)
library(dplyr)
#install.packages("lubridate")
library(lubridate)
# Set the directory where your Excel files are located
#excel_folder = "C:/Users/Ian/Desktop/Geo Instability/FSI"
# List all Excel files in the folder
#excel_files = list.files(excel_folder, pattern = "\\.xlsx$", full.names = TRUE)
# Importing Data
d23 = read_excel("fsi-2023.xlsx") # return and redo
d22 = read_excel("fsi-2022.xlsx")
d21 = read_excel("fsi-2021.xlsx")
d20 = read_excel("fsi-2020.xlsx")
d19 = read_excel("fsi-2019.xlsx")
d18 = read_excel("fsi-2018.xlsx")
d17 = read_excel("fsi-2017.xlsx")
d16 = read_excel("fsi-2016.xlsx")
d15 = read_excel("fsi-2015.xlsx")
d14 = read_excel("fsi-2013.xlsx")
d13 = read_excel("fsi-2013.xlsx")
d12 = read_excel("fsi-2012.xlsx")
d11 = read_excel("fsi-2011.xlsx")
d10 = read_excel("fsi-2010.xlsx")
d09 = read_excel("fsi-2009.xlsx")
d08 = read_excel("fsi-2008.xlsx")
d07 = read_excel("fsi-2007.xlsx")
d06 = read_excel("fsi-2006.xlsx")
# Creating a list
list1 = list(c(d22, d21, d20, d19, d18, d17, d16, d15, d14, d13, d12, d11, d10, d09, d08, d07, d06))
# "Change from Previous year"
d19 = d19[,!(names(d19) %in% "Change from Previous Year")]
d20 = d20[,!(names(d20) %in% "Change from Previous Year")]
# build a function which creates a new column for difference between the two years
# Convert the Year column in d21 and d23 to datetime
d21$Year = "2021-1-1" # Change it to "2021-1-1" format
d21$Year <- as_datetime(d21$Year)
d23$Year = "2023-1-1" # Change it to "2023-1-1" format
d23$Year <- as_datetime(d23$Year)
#
n23 = d23[,c('Country', 'Total')]# return and redo
n22 = d22[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n21 = d21[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n20 = d20[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n19 = d19[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n18 = d18[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n17 = d17[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n16 = d16[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n15 = d15[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n14 = d14[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n13 = d13[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n12 = d12[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n11 = d11[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n10 = d10[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n09 = d09[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n08 = d08[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n07 = d07[,c('Country', 'Total')]
n06 = d06[,c('Country', 'Total')]
# Joining n to d
d22 = inner_join(d22,n23, by = 'Country')# return and redo
d21 = inner_join(d21,n22, by = 'Country')
d20 = inner_join(d20,n21, by = 'Country')
d19 = inner_join(d19,n20, by = 'Country')
d18 = inner_join(d18,n19, by = 'Country')
d17 = inner_join(d17,n18, by = 'Country')
d16 = inner_join(d16,n17, by = 'Country')
d15 = inner_join(d15,n16, by = 'Country')
d14 = inner_join(d14,n15, by = 'Country')
d13 = inner_join(d13,n14, by = 'Country')
d12 = inner_join(d12,n13, by = 'Country')
d11 = inner_join(d11,n12, by = 'Country')
d10 = inner_join(d10,n11, by = 'Country')
d09 = inner_join(d09,n10, by = 'Country')
d08 = inner_join(d08,n09, by = 'Country')
d07 = inner_join(d07,n08, by = 'Country')
d06 = inner_join(d06,n07, by = 'Country')
# append columns
d23$Total.y = NA
# rename Total to fit
d23 = d23 %>%
rename(Total.x = Total)
d06_23 = bind_rows(d23, d22, d21, d20, d19, d18, d17, d16, d15, d14, d13, d12, d11, d10, d09, d08, d07, d06)
# rename Total to fit
d06_23 = d06_23 %>%
rename(Total = Total.x)
d06_23 = d06_23 %>%
rename(Total_nxt = Total.y)
# Export csv
write.csv(d06_23, file ="/Users/Ian/Desktop/Geo Instability/d06_23.csv", row.names=FALSE)
#write.csv(d23, file ="/Users/Ian/Desktop/Geo Instability/FSI/d23.csv", row.names=FALSE)
# We only need 06-22 for regression, can be used later on 23
d06_22 = bind_rows(d22, d21, d20, d19, d18, d17, d16, d15, d14, d13, d12, d11, d10, d09, d08, d07, d06)
# rename Total to fit
d06_22 = d06_22 %>%
rename(Total = Total.x)
d06_22 = d06_22 %>%
rename(Total_nxt = Total.y)
# Create Total Change Column
d06_22$Total_Change = d06_22$Total_nxt - d06_22$Total
#############################################################################
# v1. will only include the FSI data
# v2. will include interaction terms and dummy variables
# Consider adding in a previous year column
#
#############################################################################
############################# v1. ###########################################
# v1. doesn't need country year or rank
df = d06_22[,!(names(d06_22) %in% c("Country", "Year", "Rank", "Total_nxt"))] # Do we want current instability total in the regression?
# Initial Exploratory Regression on Total Change
ex_model = glm(df$Total_Change ~ df$Total + df$`C1: Security Apparatus`+df$`C2: Factionalized Elites`+df$`C3: Group Grievance`+df$`E1: Economy`
+ df$`E2: Economic Inequality`+ df$`E3: Human Flight and Brain Drain`+df$`P1: State Legitimacy`+df$`P2: Public Services`+df$`P3: Human Rights`
+ df$`S1: Demographic Pressures`+ df$`S2: Refugees and IDPs`+ df$`X1: External Intervention`)
summary(ex_model)
# We can assess the change in the sum total of