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Bladder Cancer

Disease Overview

.. todo::

   Add definition of bladder cancer. In particular, find data about global prevalence and disease fatal and non fatal description.

GBD 2017 Modeling Strategy

Bladder cancer in GBD 2017

The GBD modelling strategy can be found in the GBD YLD Capstone Appendix [GBD-2017-YLD-Capstone-Appendix-1-Bladder-Cancer].

Incidence is estimated directly from mortality using mortality to incidence ratios (MIR).

Because of long-term disability associated with cystectomy, prevalence for bladder cancer is estimated beyond ten years. To estimate the disability, total prevalence for bladder cancer is split into

  1. Diagnosis and primary therapy
  2. Controlled phase
    1. Controlled phase of bladder cancer, with incontinence
    2. Controlled phase of bladder cancer, without incontinence
  3. Metastatic phase
  4. Terminal phase
  5. Incontinence from bladder cancer, beyond 10 years
.. todo::

   Add more details about GBD modelling strategy of bladder cancer.

Cause Hierarchy

Restrictions

The following table describes any restrictions on the effects of this cause (such as being only fatal or only nonfatal), as well as restrictions on the age and sex of simulants to which different aspects of the cause model apply.

Restrictions
Restriction Type Value Notes
Male only False  
Female only False  
YLL only False  
YLD only False  
YLL age group start 15 to 19 GBD age group id 8
YLL age group end 95 plus GBD age group id 235
YLD age group start 15 to 19 GBD age group id 8
YLD age group end 95 plus GBD age group id 235

Vivarium Modeling Strategy

Scope

.. todo::

   Add scope.

Model Assumptions and Limitations

1. Within GBD 2017, after diagnosis/ treatment if a patient survives more than 10 years, they are considered cured for calculating disability. For simulation models, this means that if the simulation is run for more than 10 years, then excess mortality rate exists due to cancer after 10 years and the number of deaths increase. But as per GBD 2017, after 10 years, the patients do not have excess mortality rate. So, this model might over estimate deaths in that scenario.

.. todo::

   Add more assumptions and limitations.

Cause Model Diagram

Within GBD 2017 data, the remission rate is not available which makes it difficult to transition through the states. So, due to data limitations we are simplifying the model.

Note: This simpliflication might over estimate the number of deaths. See Model Assumptions and Limitations section for more information.

State and Transition Data Tables

Definitions
State State Name Definition
S Susceptible Susceptible to bladder cancer
I Infected Infected with bladder cancer
States Data
State Measure Value Notes
S prevalence 1-prevalence_c474  
S excess mortality rate 0  
S disabilty weights 0  
I prevalence prevalence_c474  
I excess mortality rate \frac{\text{deaths_c474}}{\text{population} \times \text{prevalence_c474}}  
I disability weights \displaystyle{\sum_{s\in \text{sequelae_c474}}} \scriptstyle{\text{disability_weight}_s \,\times\, \text{prevalence}_s} total disability weight over all sequelae with ids s_341, s_5528, s_5531, s_343, s_344, s_5534
ALL cause specific mortality rate \frac{\text{deaths_c474}}{\text{population}}  
Transition Data
Transition Source Sink Value Notes
i S I \frac{\text{incidence_rate_c474}}{\text{1 - prevalence_c474}} Incidence rate in total population is divided by 1-prevalence_c474 to get incidence rate among the susceptible population.
Data Sources
Measure Sources Description Notes
prevalence_c474 como Prevalence of cause bladder cancer  
deaths_c474 codcorrect Deaths from bladder cancer  
population demography Mid-year population for given country  
incidence_rate_c474 como Incidence rate for bladder cancer  
disability_weight_s{sid} YLD appendix Disability weights associated with each sequelae  
prevalence_s{sid} como Prevalence of each sequelae  

Validation Criteria

.. todo::

   Describe tests for model validation.

References

[GBD-2017-YLD-Capstone-Appendix-1-Bladder-Cancer]Supplement to: GBD 2017 Disease and Injury Incidence and Prevalence Collaborators. Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1789–858 (pp. 310-317)