Rain intensity needs to included as a parameter in the model

[PaulMelloy]

Discussed in meeting,
The amount of rainfall in a rain hour/event effects the potentially_effective_spores. However, this is not included in the model.

We could easily add this as a multiplier, we need coefficients from models to base this multiplier off.

@IhsanKhaliq could you provide references that report coefficients for rain quantity impacting spore dispersal

[IhsanKhaliq]

There is a rain cauchy mulitplier for rain splash dispersal reported by both Art and Coventry. I tried my best but couldn't find anything else. Would these work?

[IhsanKhaliq]

But these are related to the distance spread. We want something related to the amount of spore release?

[PaulMelloy]

Yes, something related to rainfall in millimetres influencing the number of "effective spores" spread

[IhsanKhaliq]

That’s going to be very hard to find. I’m searching but I unlikely to find something From: Paul Melloy ***@***.***> Reply to: IhsanKhaliq/ascotraceR ***@***.***> Date: Friday, 6 August 2021 at 9:56 am To: IhsanKhaliq/ascotraceR ***@***.***> Cc: Ihsan Khaliq ***@***.***>, Mention ***@***.***> Subject: Re: [IhsanKhaliq/ascotraceR] Rain intensity needs to included as a parameter in the model (#79) Yes, something related to rainfall in millimetres influencing the number of "effective spores" spread — You are receiving this because you were mentioned. Reply to this email directly, view it on GitHub<#79 (comment)>, or unsubscribe<https://github.com/notifications/unsubscribe-auth/ANBRP5IJZSE4TIEHWG65WCLT3MQH7ANCNFSM5BSOQO2Q>.

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[PaulMelloy]

On another note the model at the moment the model uses the number of new growing points produced in the last day (24h) to influence the max_interception_probability.

ascotraceR/R/one_day.R

Lines 55 to 57 in f19aec5

	max_interception_probability <-
	interception_probability(target_density = 5 * max(daily_vals[["paddock"]][,new_gp]),
	k = spore_interception_parameter)

In the table above there is a reference that new growing points might influence max_interception_probability for the 4-5 days prior?

[PaulMelloy]

Actually now I think about this...
That would explain the 5 *
multiplier, so disregard that question

[IhsanKhaliq]

Yes, that calculation should take of that. Indirectly, max_interception_probability or deposition probability would depend on the number of susceptible growing points that are not infected yet

&

[PaulMelloy]

I am going to close this issue as it has been addressed with the rainfall_multiplier branch of this repo. More experimentation is needed to discover actual coefficients that could be used as an estimator for the volume of spores dispersed in a spread event.
As a note from eyeballing the model in the rainfall_multiplier branch against field data it seems a better fit than without a rainfall multiplier. I suggest running permutations of the model with different rainfall multiplier values against field data to find the best coefficient here