:numref:`tab-depl` shows the assumed total potentials of non-biomass renewable energy deployment (by resource type) in the MESSAGE model. In addition, the technical potential estimates are based on different sources, such as the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory database as described in the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 :cite:`rogner_chapter_2012`). In this context, it is important to note that typical MESSAGE scenarios do not consider the full technical potential of renewable energy resources, but rather only a subset of those potentials, owing to additional constraints (e.g., sustainability criteria, technology diffusion and systems integration issues, and other economic considerations). These constraints may lead to a significant reduction of the technical potential.
Assumed global non-biomass renewable energy deployment potentials in the MESSAGE model. Estimates from the Global Energy Assessment (Rogner et al., 2012 :cite:`rogner_chapter_2012`) also added for comparison.| Source | MESSAGE | Rogner et al., 2012 :cite:`rogner_chapter_2012` |
|---|---|---|
| Deployment Potential [EJ/yr] | Technical Potential [EJ/yr] | |
| Hydro | 38 | 50 - 60 |
| Wind (on-/offshore) | 689/287 | 1250 - 2250 |
| Solar PV | 6064 | 62,000 - 280,000 |
| CSP | 2132 | same as Solar PV above |
| Geothermal | 23 | 810 - 1400 |
Notes: MESSAGE renewable energy potentials are estimated based on the methods explained in Pietzcker et al., 2014 :cite:`pietzcker_solar_2014`, Eurek et al., 2017 :cite:`eurek_wind_2017`, Christiansson, 1995 :cite:`christiansson_diffusion_1995`, and Rogner et al., 2012 :cite:`rogner_chapter_2012`. The potentials for non-combustible renewable energy sources are specified in terms of the electricity or heat that can be produced by specific technologies (i.e., from a secondary energy perspective). By contrast, the technical potentials from :cite:`rogner_chapter_2012` refer to the flows of energy that could become available as inputs for technology conversion. So for example, the technical potential for wind is given as the kinetic energy available for wind power generation, whereas the deployment potential would only be the electricity that could be generated by the wind turbines.
Regional resource potentials for solar and wind are classified according to resource quality (annual capacity factor) based on Pietzcker et al. (2014, :cite:`pietzcker_solar_2014`) and Eurek et al. (2017) :cite:`eurek_wind_2017`. Regional resource potentials as implemented into MESSAGE are provided by region and capacity factor for solar PV, concentrating solar power (CSP), and onshore/offshore wind in Johnson et al. (2016, :cite:`johnson_vre_2016`). The physical potential of these sources is assumed to be the same across all SSPs. :numref:`tab-pv`, :numref:`tab-csp`, :numref:`tab-onshorewind`, :numref:`tab-offshorewind` show the resource potential for solar PV, CSP (solar multiples (SM) of 1 & 3), on- and offshore wind respectivey. For wind, :numref:`tab-capfactonshore` and :numref:`tab-capfactoffshore` list the capacity factors corresponding to the wind classes used in the resource tables. It is important to note that part of the resource that is useable at economically competitive costs is assumed to differ widely (see Section :ref:`electricity`).
Resource potential (EJ) by region and capacity factor for solar photovoltaic (PV) technology (Johnson et al., 2016 :cite:`johnson_vre_2016`). For a description of each of the regions represented in the table, see :ref:`spatial`.| By grade | |||||||||
Capacity Factor
(fraction of year)
|
0.28 | 0.21 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.15 | 0.14 | |
Resource
Potential
(EJ)
|
AFR | 0.0 | 1.1 | 46.5 | 176.6 | 233.4 | 218.2 | 169.9 | 61.9 |
| CPA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.3 | 194.3 | 315.5 | 159.4 | 41.9 | |
| EEU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | |
| FSU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 23.6 | 94.9 | 116.6 | |
| LAM | 0.1 | 4.9 | 49.4 | 165.6 | 157.5 | 167.4 | 81.4 | 48.5 | |
| MEA | 0.2 | 3.1 | 100.8 | 533.6 | 621.8 | 310.1 | 75.3 | 14.5 | |
| NAM | 0.0 | 0.3 | 24.3 | 140.4 | 131.0 | 116.3 | 155.7 | 106.4 | |
| PAO | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 53.1 | 226.4 | 311.2 | 158.9 | |
| PAS | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 17.0 | 31.2 | 12.8 | |
| SAS | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 42.7 | 67.2 | 82.3 | 23.7 | 4.1 | |
| WEU | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 12.8 | 39.4 | 58.3 | 33.3 | |
| Global | 0.3 | 9.6 | 227.4 | 1074.7 | 1474.6 | 1516.3 | 1160.9 | 600.0 | |
| By grade | |||||||||
Capacity
Factor
(fraction
of year)
|
SM1 | 0.27 | 0.25 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.20 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| SM3 | 0.75 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.50 | 0.46 | 0.41 | |
Resource
Potential
(EJ)
|
AFR | 0.0 | 3.6 | 19.0 | 81.6 | 106.7 | 62.8 | 59.6 | 37.8 |
| CPA | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 11.5 | 53.0 | |
| EEU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |
| FSU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 6.1 | |
| LAM | 0.0 | 2.0 | 7.0 | 11.8 | 29.3 | 57.1 | 56.8 | 53.5 | |
| MEA | 0.1 | 3.7 | 24.8 | 122.4 | 155.3 | 144.5 | 68.4 | 34.0 | |
| NAM | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 19.7 | 20.2 | 29.6 | 43.2 | |
| PAO | 0.0 | 3.0 | 75.1 | 326.9 | 158.3 | 140.4 | 40.2 | 10.2 | |
| PAS | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.6 | |
| SAS | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 16.1 | 9.8 | |
| WEU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 2.4 | 3.0 | |
| Global | 0.1 | 12.3 | 126.0 | 549.2 | 473.3 | 434.8 | 285.0 | 251.3 | |
| Wind Class | ||||||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8+ | |
| AFR | 38.2 | 21.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| CPA | 24.7 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| EEU | 6.1 | 5.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| FSU | 52.3 | 83.8 | 5.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| LAM | 33.5 | 15.9 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| MEA | 56.1 | 22.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| NAM | 28.6 | 66.4 | 23.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| PAO | 18.9 | 18.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| PAS | 5.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| SAS | 12.3 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| WEU | 16.1 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 0.6 |
| World | 292.1 | 266.8 | 77.5 | 30.9 | 14.3 | 7.5 |
| Wind Class | ||||||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8+ | |
| AFR | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| CPA | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| EEU | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| FSU | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| LAM | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.46 |
| MEA | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| NAM | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| PAO | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| PAS | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| SAS | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| WEU | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| Wind Class | ||||||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8+ | |
| AFR | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| CPA | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.1 |
| EEU | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| FSU | 1.8 | 4.6 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 4.3 | 0.7 |
| LAM | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 5.9 |
| MEA | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| NAM | 4.5 | 18.2 | 24.0 | 16.0 | 7.3 | 2.1 |
| PAO | 5.8 | 11.2 | 15.3 | 9.8 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| PAS | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| SAS | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| WEU | 3.5 | 4.7 | 8.8 | 12.9 | 10.3 | 0.9 |
| World | 40.4 | 61.5 | 79.4 | 60.5 | 30.3 | 14.8 |
| Wind class | ||||||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8+ | |
| AFR | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.41 | 0.47 |
| CPA | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| EEU | 0.24 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.34 | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| FSU | 0.25 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| LAM | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.49 |
| MEA | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| NAM | 0.25 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.43 |
| PAO | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.47 |
| PAS | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.35 | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| SAS | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| WEU | 0.24 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.40 | 0.42 |