references.bib

@Article{arbuckleInfluenceWatershedLand2001,
  title = {The Influence of Watershed Land Use on Lake {{N}}:{{P}} in a Predominantly Agricultural Landscape},
  volume = {34},
  shorttitle = {{{VERTEX}}},
  number = {2},
  journal = {Limnol. Oceanogr},
  author = {John H. Arbuckle and George A. Downing},
  year = {2001},
  pages = {267--285},
  file = {/home/jose/Zotero/storage/C5W4P22N/lno20014640970.pdf},
}
@Article{buckScaledependenceLandUse2004,
  title = {Scale-Dependence of Land Use Effects on Water Quality of Streams in Agricultural Catchments},
  volume = {130},
  issn = {02697491},
  abstract = {The influence of land use on water quality in streams is scale-dependent and varies in time and space. In this study, land cover patterns and stocking rates were used as measures of agricultural development in two pasture and one native grassland catchment in New Zealand and were related to water quality in streams of various orders. The amount of pasture per subcatchment correlated well to total nitrogen and nitrate in one catchment and turbidity and total phosphorous in the other catchment. Stocking rates were only correlated to total phosphorous in one pasture catchment but showed stronger correlations to ammonium, total phosphorous and total nitrogen in the other pasture catchment. Winter and spring floods were significant sources of nutrients and faecal coliforms from one of the pasture catchments into a wetland complex. Nutrient and faecal coliform concentrations were better predicted by pastural land cover in fourth-order than in second-order streams. This suggests that upstream land use is more influential in larger streams, while local land use and other factors may be more important in smaller streams. These temporal and spatial scale effects indicate that water-monitoring schemes need to be scale-sensitive.},
  language = {en},
  number = {2},
  journal = {Environmental Pollution},
  doi = {10.1016/j.envpol.2003.10.018},
  author = {Oliver Buck and Dev K Niyogi and Colin R Townsend},
  month = {jul},
  year = {2004},
  pages = {287-299},
  file = {/home/jose/Zotero/storage/SPBFY8WZ/Buck et al. - 2004 - Scale-dependence of land use effects on water qual.pdf},
}

@Article{danielInfluencesSpatialScale2010,
  title = {Influences of {{Spatial Scale}} and {{Soil Permeability}} on {{Relationships Between Land Cover}} and {{Baseflow Stream Nutrient Concentrations}}},
  volume = {45},
  issn = {0364-152X, 1432-1009},
  language = {en},
  number = {2},
  journal = {Environmental Management},
  doi = {10.1007/s00267-009-9401-x},
  author = {F. Bernard Daniel and Michael B. Griffith and Michael E. Troyer},
  month = {feb},
  year = {2010},
  pages = {336-350},
  file = {/home/jose/Zotero/storage/IVPRJMF3/Daniel et al. - 2010 - Influences of Spatial Scale and Soil Permeability .pdf},
}

@Article{holmesEffectsBestManagement2016,
  title = {Effects of {{Best Management Practice}} on {{Ecological Condition}}: {{Does Location Matter}}?},
  volume = {57},
  issn = {0364-152X, 1432-1009},
  shorttitle = {Effects of {{Best Management Practice}} on {{Ecological Condition}}},
  language = {en},
  number = {5},
  journal = {Environmental Management},
  doi = {10.1007/s00267-016-0662-x},
  author = {Roger Holmes and David G. Armanini and Adam G. Yates},
  month = {may},
  year = {2016},
  pages = {1062-1076},
  file = {/home/jose/Zotero/storage/92A3GPIN/Holmes et al. - 2016 - Effects of Best Management Practice on Ecological .pdf},
}


@article{wagnerLandscapeDriversRegional2011,
  title = {Landscape Drivers of Regional Variation in the Relationship between Total Phosphorus and Chlorophyll in Lakes: {{Relationship}} between Total Phosphorus and Chlorophyll},
  volume = {56},
  issn = {00465070},
  shorttitle = {Landscape Drivers of Regional Variation in the Relationship between Total Phosphorus and Chlorophyll in Lakes},
  language = {en},
  number = {9},
  journal = {Freshwater Biology},
  doi = {10.1111/j.1365-2427.2011.02621.x},
  author = {Wagner, Tyler and Soranno, Patricia A. and Webster, Katherine E. and Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence},
  month = sep,
  year = {2011},
  pages = {1811-1824},
  file = {/home/jose/Zotero/storage/S7HP73JI/Wagneretal2011FreshwaterBiol.pdf}
}


@Article{filstrupRelationshipChlorophyllPhosphorus2017,
  title = {Relationship of Chlorophyll to Phosphorus and Nitrogen in Nutrient-Rich Lakes},
  volume = {7},
  issn = {2044-2041, 2044-205X},
  abstract = {Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) commonly co-limit primary productivity in lakes, and chlorophyll a (Chl-a) is predicted to be greatest under high N, high P regimes. Because land use practices can alter N and P biogeochemical cycles in watersheds, it is unclear whether previously documented phytoplankton\textendash{}nutrient relationships apply where landscapes are highly disturbed. Here, we analyzed a lake water quality database from an agricultural region to explore relationships among Chl-a, total N (TN), and total P (TP) under extreme nutrient concentrations. Chl-a was weakly related to TN when TP was {$\leq$}100 {$\mu$}g L-1 but displayed a stronger response to TN at higher TP. When TP exceeded 100 {$\mu$}g L-1, Chl-a increased with increasing TN until reaching a TN threshold of \textasciitilde{}3 mg L-1 and decreased thereafter, resulting in a high nutrient, low Chl-a region that did not coincide with shifts in nutrient limitation, light availability, cellular Chl-a content, phytoplankton composition, or zooplankton grazing pressure. Beyond the threshold, nitrate comprised most of TN and occurred with reduced dissolved organic matter (DOM). These observations suggest that photolysis of nitrate may produce reactive oxygen species that damage DOM and phytoplankton. Reduction in N loading at high P could therefore increase Chl-a and decrease water clarity, resulting in an apparent worsening of water quality. Our data suggest that monitoring Chl-a or Secchi depth may fail to indicate water quality degradation by extreme nutrient concentrations. These findings highlight how extreme nutrient regimes in lakes can produce novel relationships between phytoplankton and nutrients.},
  language = {en},
  number = {4},
  journal = {Inland Waters},
  doi = {10.1080/20442041.2017.1375176},
  author = {Christopher T. Filstrup and John A. Downing},
  month = {oct},
  year = {2017},
  pages = {385-400},
  file = {/home/jose/Zotero/storage/JGB8IV7P/Filstrup and Downing - 2017 - Relationship of chlorophyll to phosphorus and nitr.pdf},
}
@Article{falconeRegionalPatternsAnthropogenic2019,
  title = {Regional Patterns of Anthropogenic Influences on Streams and Rivers in the Conterminous {{United States}}, from the Early 1970s to 2012},
  issn = {1747-423X, 1747-4248},
  abstract = {This paper introduces a dataset containing consistent time-series measurements of anthropogenic activities potentially affecting stream quality across the conterminous United States and summarizes the most noteworthy trends from 61 variables in 16 categories. Data include measures of atmospheric deposition, agricultural production, livestock, urbanization, irrigation, land use, nutrients from fertilizer, dams/reservoirs, and pesticide use, among others. The trend periods range from 10 to 40 years, beginning as early as 1970 and ending in 2012. Detailed summaries are provided for 1992-2012. Key results include: increase of urbanization and `exurbanization', particularly in the South, Southwest, and Mid-Atlantic; increases in crop production and fertilizer use in much of the Midwest; increases in the concentration of livestock, particularly of hogs/pigs; increases in irrigation, dams, and reservoirs in the Lower Mississippi and Lower Missouri watersheds, widespread increase in the use of the pesticide glyphosate; and widespread decrease in atmospheric deposition of sulfate. These results and others provide a framework for evaluating potential causes of waterquality changes over the past four decades.},
  language = {en},
  journal = {Journal of Land Use Science},
  doi = {10.1080/1747423X.2019.1590473},
  author = {James A. Falcone and Jennifer C. Murphy and Lori A. Sprague},
  month = {mar},
  year = {2019},
  pages = {1-30},
  file = {/home/jose/Zotero/storage/QNADTKKE/Falcone et al. - 2019 - Regional patterns of anthropogenic influences on s.pdf},
}
@Article{collinsLakeNutrientStoichiometry2017,
  title = {Lake Nutrient Stoichiometry Is Less Predictable than Nutrient Concentrations at Regional and Sub-Continental Scales},
  volume = {27},
  issn = {10510761},
  abstract = {Production in many ecosystems is co-limited by multiple elements. While a known suite of drivers associated with nutrient sources, nutrient transport, and internal processing controls concentrations of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in lakes, much less is known about whether the drivers of single nutrient concentrations can also explain spatial or temporal variation in lake N:P stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry might be more complex than predicting concentrations of individual elements because some drivers have similar relationships with N and P, leading to a weak relationship with their ratio. Further, the dominant controls on elemental concentrations likely vary across regions, resulting in context dependent relationships between drivers, lake nutrients and their ratios. Here, we examine whether known drivers of N and P concentrations can explain variation in N:P stoichiometry, and whether explaining variation in stoichiometry differs across regions. We examined drivers of N:P in \textasciitilde{}2,700 lakes at a sub-continental scale and two large regions nested within the sub-continental study area that have contrasting ecological context, including differences in the dominant type of land cover (agriculture vs. forest). At the sub-continental scale, lake nutrient concentrations were correlated with nutrient loading and lake internal processing, but stoichiometry was only weakly correlated to drivers of lake nutrients. At the regional scale, drivers that explained variation in nutrients and stoichiometry differed between regions. In the Midwestern U.S. region, dominated by agricultural land use, lake depth and the percentage of row crop agriculture were strong predictors of stoichiometry because only phosphorus was related to lake depth and only nitrogen was related to the percentage of row crop agriculture. In contrast, all drivers were related to N and P in similar ways in the Northeastern U.S. region, leading to weak relationships between drivers and stoichiometry. Our results suggest ecological context mediates controls on lake nutrients and stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry was generally more difficult than predicting nutrient concentrations, but human activity may decouple N and P, leading to better prediction of N:P stoichiometry in regions with high anthropogenic activity.},
  language = {en},
  number = {5},
  journal = {Ecological Applications},
  doi = {10.1002/eap.1545},
  author = {Sarah M. Collins and Samantha K. Oliver and Jean-Francois Lapierre and Emily H. Stanley and John R. Jones and Tyler Wagner and Patricia A. Soranno},
  month = {jul},
  year = {2017},
  keywords = {important,need to read},
  pages = {1529-1540},
  file = {/home/jose/Zotero/storage/2HQEG9E6/Collins et al. - 2017 - Lake nutrient stoichiometry is less predictable th.pdf},
}
@Article{burcherLANDCOVERCASCADERELATIONSHIPS2007,
  title = {{{The land}}-{{cover cascade}}: {{relationships coupling land and water}}},
  volume = {88},
  issn = {0012-9658},
  shorttitle = {{{THE LAND}}-{{COVER CASCADE}}},
  abstract = {We introduce the land-cover cascade (LCC) as a conceptual framework to quantify the transfer of land-cover-disturbance effects to stream biota. We hypothesize that disturbance is propagated through multivariate systems through key variables that transform a disturbance and pass a reorganized disturbance effect to the next hierarchical level where the process repeats until ultimately affecting biota. We measured 31 hydrologic, geomorphic, erosional, and substrate variables and 26 biotic responses that have been associated with landuse disturbance in third- and fourth-order streams in the Blue Ridge physiographic province in western North Carolina (USA). Regression analyses reduced this set of variables to include only those that responded to land cover and/or affected biota. From this reduced variable set, hypotheses were generated that predicted the disturbance pathways affecting each biotic response following the land-cover-cascade design. Cascade pathways began with land cover and ended with biotic responses, passing through at least one intermediate ecosystem abiotic component. Cascade models were tested for predictive ability and goodness-of-fit using path analysis. Biota were influenced by near-stream urban, agricultural, and forest land cover as propagated by hydrologic (e.g., discharge), geomorphic (e.g., stream bank height), erosional (e.g., suspended sediments), and depositional streambed (e.g., substrate size) features occurring along LCC pathways, reflecting abiotic mechanisms mediating land-cover disturbance. Our results suggest that communities are influenced by land-cover change indirectly through a hierarchy of associated abiotic components that propagate disturbance to biota. More generally, the land-cover cascade concept and experimental framework demonstrate an organized approach to the generic study of cascades and the complex relationships between landscapes and streams.},
  language = {en},
  number = {1},
  journal = {Ecology},
  doi = {10.1890/0012-9658(2007)88[228:TLCRCL]2.0.CO;2},
  author = {C. L. Burcher and H. M. Valett and E. F. Benfield and E. T. al},
  month = {jan},
  year = {2007},
  pages = {228-242},
  file = {/home/jose/Zotero/storage/7DTKU563/Burcher et al. - 2007 - THE LAND-COVER CASCADE RELATIONSHIPS COUPLING LAN.pdf},
}
@Article{carvalhoHorseshoeEstimatorSparse2010,
  title = {The Horseshoe Estimator for Sparse Signals},
  volume = {97},
  abstract = {This paper proposes a new approach to sparsity, called the horseshoe estimator, which arises from a prior based on multivariate-normal scale mixtures. We describe the estimator's advantages over existing approaches, including its robustness, adaptivity to different sparsity patterns and analytical tractability. We prove two theorems: one that characterizes the horseshoe estimator's tail robustness and the other that demonstrates a super-efficient rate of convergence to the correct estimate of the sampling density in sparse situations. Finally, using both real and simulated data, we show that the horseshoe estimator corresponds quite closely to the answers obtained by Bayesian model averaging under a point-mass mixture prior.},
  language = {en},
  number = {2},
  journal = {Biometrika},
  author = {Carlos M. Carvalho and Nicholas G. Polson and James G. Scott},
  year = {2010},
  pages = {465-480},
  file = {/home/jose/Zotero/storage/YMH6QHSE/CARVALHO et al. - 2010 - The horseshoe estimator for sparse signals.pdf},
}

@article{sorannoLAGOSNEMultiscaledGeospatial2017,
  title = {{{LAGOS}}-{{NE}}: A Multi-Scaled Geospatial and Temporal Database of Lake Ecological Context and Water Quality for Thousands of {{US}} Lakes},
  volume = {6},
  issn = {2047-217X},
  shorttitle = {{{LAGOS}}-{{NE}}},
  language = {en},
  number = {12},
  journal = {GigaScience},
  doi = {10.1093/gigascience/gix101},
  author = {Soranno, Patricia A and al, e and al, e and al e},
  month = dec,
  year = {2017},
  keywords = {important},
  pages = {1-22},
  file = {/home/jose/Zotero/storage/LI838Y5H/gix101.pdf}
}
@Article{ruddy2006county,
  title = {County-Level Estimates of Nutrient Inputs to the Land Surface of the Conterminous {{United States}}, 1982-2001},
  author = {Barbara C Ruddy and David L Lorenz and David K Mueller},
  year = {2006},
  publisher = {{US Department of the Interior, US Geological Survey Washington, DC}},
}
@Article{hayesClimateLandUse2015,
  title = {Climate and Land Use Interactively Affect Lake Phytoplankton Nutrient Limitation Status},
  volume = {96},
  issn = {0012-9658},
  abstract = {Climate-change models predict more frequent and intense summer droughts for many areas, including the midwestern United States. Precipitation quantity and intensity in turn drive the rates and ratios at which nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are exported from watersheds into lakes, but these rates and ratios are also modulated by watershed land use. This led us to ask the question, is the effect of precipitation on phytoplankton nutrient limitation dependent on watershed land use? Across 42 lakes, we found that phytoplankton in lakes in agricultural landscapes were usually P limited but shifted to strong N limitation under increased drought intensity, and that droughts promoted N-fixing cyanobacteria. In contrast, phytoplankton in lakes with forested watersheds were consistently N limited, regardless of drought status. This climate\textendash{}land use interaction suggests that droughts may increase the incidence of N limitation in agriculturally impacted lakes. N limitation would likely impair valuable ecosystem services such as drinking water, fisheries, and recreation by promoting the occurrence and severity of cyanobacterial blooms.},
  language = {en},
  number = {2},
  journal = {Ecology},
  doi = {10.1890/13-1840.1},
  author = {Nicole M. Hayes and Michael J. Vanni and Martin J. Horgan and William H. Renwick},
  month = {feb},
  year = {2015},
  pages = {392-402},
  file = {/home/jose/Zotero/storage/PPVS8W55/Hayes et al. - 2015 - Climate and land use interactively affect lake phy.pdf},
}

@Article{kingSPATIALCONSIDERATIONSLINKING2005,
  title = {{{Spatial considerations for linking watershed land cover to ecological indicators in streams}}},
  volume = {15},
  issn = {1051-0761},
  abstract = {Watershed land cover is widely used as a predictor of stream-ecosystem condition. However, numerous spatial factors can confound the interpretation of correlative analyses between land cover and stream indicators, particularly at broad spatial scales. We used a stream-monitoring data set collected from the Coastal Plain of Maryland, USA to address analytical challenges presented by (1) collinearity of land-cover class percentages, (2) spatial autocorrelation of land cover and stream data, (3) intercorrelations among and spatial autocorrelation within abiotic intermediaries that link land cover to stream biota, and (4) spatial arrangement of land cover within watersheds. We focused on two commonly measured stream indicators, nitrate-nitrogen (NO3\textendash{}N) and macroinvertebrate assemblages, to evaluate how different spatial considerations may influence results. Partial correlation analysis of land-cover percentages revealed that simple correlations described relationships that could not be separated from the effects of other land-cover classes or relationships that changed substantially when the influences of other land-cover classes were taken into account. Partial Mantel tests showed that all land-cover percentages were spatially autocorrelated, and this spatial phenomenon accounted for much of the variation in macroinvertebrate assemblages that could naively be attributed to certain classes (e.g., percentage cropland). We extended our use of partial Mantel tests into a path-analytical framework and identified several independent pathways between percentage developed land and instream measurements after factoring out spatial autocorrelation and other confounding variables; however, under these conditions, percentage cropland was only linked to nitrateN. Further analyses revealed that spatial arrangement of land cover, as measured by areal buffers and distance weighting, influenced the amount of developed land, resulting in a threshold change in macroinvertebrate-assemblage composition. Moreover, distanceweighted percentage cropland improved predictions of stream nitrate-N concentrations in small watersheds, but not in medium or large ones. Collectively, this series of analyses clarified the magnitude and critical scales of effects of different land-cover classes on Coastal Plain stream ecosystems and may serve as an analytical framework for other studies. Our results suggest that greater emphasis should be placed on these important spatial considerations; otherwise, we risk obscuring the relationships between watershed land cover and the condition of stream ecosystems.},
  language = {en},
  number = {1},
  journal = {Ecological Applications},
  doi = {10.1890/04-0481},
  author = {Ryan S. King and Matthew E. Baker and Dennis F. Whigham and Donald E. Weller and Thomas E. Jordan and Paul F. Kazyak and Martin K. Hurd},
  month = {feb},
  year = {2005},
  pages = {137-153},
  file = {/home/jose/Zotero/storage/G7M4VEDF/King et al. - 2005 - SPATIAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR LINKING WATERSHED LAND .pdf},
}