A simple disease spread visualization based on R0, CFR, serial interval and the final size relation. Associated Medium post here.
Assumes a completely isolated, small community in which susceptible depletion kicks in, using the final size relation s∞ = S(0)e^[–R0(1–s∞)] [1 2]. Other assumptions include homogeneous contact & transmission rates (whereas better models consider heterogeneous contact & transmission rates, e.g. [1, 2, 3]), that serial interval == generation interval and that no behavior change occurs over the course of the epidemic. If you see any errors or have questions/concerns/comments, please hit me up.
- Various
- SARS (1.77-1.85)
- Seasonal Influenza (1.3)
- Covid-19 (1.4-2.5)
- Covid-19 high (mean 3.28, median 2.79)
- Covid-19 (1.32 with a corresponding SI of 3.96)
- Covid-19 high 3.4%
- Covid-19 CFR high (2.3%)
- Covid-19 IFR (1.6%)
- Covid-19 IFR (0.94%)
- Covid-19 IFR low (0.3%–1%)
- Ebola, SARS and MERS CFR (50%, 10%, 34%)
- Seasonal Influenza CFR (0.1%)
- Smallpox CFR (30%)
- Measles CFR (0.2%)
- Mumps CFR (1%)
- Rubella CFR (0.1% - fatalities almost entirely infants & in utero)