elo_scoring.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 22,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Dependencies\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "%matplotlib inline"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 23,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
       "<div>\n",
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       "    .dataframe thead tr:only-child th {\n",
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       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
       "        text-align: left;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th {\n",
       "        vertical-align: top;\n",
       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>date</th>\n",
       "      <th>season</th>\n",
       "      <th>neutral</th>\n",
       "      <th>playoff</th>\n",
       "      <th>team1</th>\n",
       "      <th>team2</th>\n",
       "      <th>elo1</th>\n",
       "      <th>elo2</th>\n",
       "      <th>elo_prob1</th>\n",
       "      <th>score1</th>\n",
       "      <th>score2</th>\n",
       "      <th>result1</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15735</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/15/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>DAL</td>\n",
       "      <td>GB</td>\n",
       "      <td>1617.794683</td>\n",
       "      <td>1635.451172</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.567714</td>\n",
       "      <td>31</td>\n",
       "      <td>34</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15736</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/15/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>KC</td>\n",
       "      <td>PIT</td>\n",
       "      <td>1681.926463</td>\n",
       "      <td>1647.734179</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.638993</td>\n",
       "      <td>16</td>\n",
       "      <td>18</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15737</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/22/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>ATL</td>\n",
       "      <td>GB</td>\n",
       "      <td>1664.127266</td>\n",
       "      <td>1651.537731</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.609840</td>\n",
       "      <td>44</td>\n",
       "      <td>21</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15738</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/22/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>0</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>NE</td>\n",
       "      <td>PIT</td>\n",
       "      <td>1747.160321</td>\n",
       "      <td>1662.437215</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.703052</td>\n",
       "      <td>36</td>\n",
       "      <td>17</td>\n",
       "      <td>1.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15739</th>\n",
       "      <td>2/5/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>1</td>\n",
       "      <td>ATL</td>\n",
       "      <td>NE</td>\n",
       "      <td>1688.081418</td>\n",
       "      <td>1763.818168</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.392700</td>\n",
       "      <td>28</td>\n",
       "      <td>34</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.0</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "            date  season  neutral  playoff team1 team2         elo1  \\\n",
       "15735  1/15/2017    2016        0        1   DAL    GB  1617.794683   \n",
       "15736  1/15/2017    2016        0        1    KC   PIT  1681.926463   \n",
       "15737  1/22/2017    2016        0        1   ATL    GB  1664.127266   \n",
       "15738  1/22/2017    2016        0        1    NE   PIT  1747.160321   \n",
       "15739   2/5/2017    2016        1        1   ATL    NE  1688.081418   \n",
       "\n",
       "              elo2  elo_prob1  score1  score2  result1  \n",
       "15735  1635.451172   0.567714      31      34      0.0  \n",
       "15736  1647.734179   0.638993      16      18      0.0  \n",
       "15737  1651.537731   0.609840      44      21      1.0  \n",
       "15738  1662.437215   0.703052      36      17      1.0  \n",
       "15739  1763.818168   0.392700      28      34      0.0  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 23,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# load in csv \n",
    "\n",
    "df = pd.read_csv('data/nfl_games.csv')\n",
    "\n",
    "df.tail(5)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 24,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>\n",
      "RangeIndex: 15740 entries, 0 to 15739\n",
      "Data columns (total 12 columns):\n",
      "date         15740 non-null object\n",
      "season       15740 non-null int64\n",
      "neutral      15740 non-null int64\n",
      "playoff      15740 non-null int64\n",
      "team1        15740 non-null object\n",
      "team2        15740 non-null object\n",
      "elo1         15740 non-null float64\n",
      "elo2         15740 non-null float64\n",
      "elo_prob1    15740 non-null float64\n",
      "score1       15740 non-null int64\n",
      "score2       15740 non-null int64\n",
      "result1      15740 non-null float64\n",
      "dtypes: float64(4), int64(5), object(3)\n",
      "memory usage: 1.4+ MB\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# check datatype\n",
    "df.info()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 25,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "<class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>\n",
      "Int64Index: 768 entries, 14939 to 15728\n",
      "Data columns (total 12 columns):\n",
      "date         768 non-null object\n",
      "season       768 non-null int64\n",
      "neutral      768 non-null int64\n",
      "playoff      768 non-null int64\n",
      "team1        768 non-null object\n",
      "team2        768 non-null object\n",
      "elo1         768 non-null float64\n",
      "elo2         768 non-null float64\n",
      "elo_prob1    768 non-null float64\n",
      "score1       768 non-null int64\n",
      "score2       768 non-null int64\n",
      "result1      768 non-null float64\n",
      "dtypes: float64(4), int64(5), object(3)\n",
      "memory usage: 78.0+ KB\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# limit data to the previous 3 seasons & non-playoff (regular season) games\n",
    "df = df[df['season']>2013]\n",
    "df = df[df['playoff']==0]\n",
    "df.info()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 26,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "date         0\n",
       "season       0\n",
       "neutral      0\n",
       "playoff      0\n",
       "team1        0\n",
       "team2        0\n",
       "elo1         0\n",
       "elo2         0\n",
       "elo_prob1    0\n",
       "score1       0\n",
       "score2       0\n",
       "result1      0\n",
       "dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 26,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# check for empty entries\n",
    "df.isnull().sum()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 27,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Add datetime column\n",
    "\n",
    "df['datetime'] = pd.to_datetime(df['date'])\n",
    "\n",
    "# Add elo_prob2 column\n",
    "\n",
    "df['elo_prob2'] = 1-pd.to_numeric(df['elo_prob1'])\n",
    "\n",
    "# parse dataset by team, elo scores, and elo probabilities\n",
    "\n",
    "split_t1 = df[['date','datetime','season','team1','elo1','elo_prob1']]\n",
    "split_t2 = df[['date','datetime','season','team2','elo2','elo_prob2']]\n",
    "\n",
    "split_t1.columns = ['date','datetime','season','team','elo','probability']\n",
    "split_t2.columns = ['date','datetime','season','team','elo','probability']\n",
    "\n",
    "merge_df = [split_t1,split_t2]\n",
    "merged = pd.concat(merge_df)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 28,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "array(['SEA', 'PHI', 'PIT', 'BAL', 'TB', 'DEN', 'LAR', 'ATL', 'CHI', 'DAL',\n",
       "       'HOU', 'KC', 'MIA', 'NYJ', 'ARI', 'DET', 'BUF', 'CAR', 'CIN', 'WSH',\n",
       "       'CLE', 'GB', 'MIN', 'SF', 'NYG', 'LAC', 'TEN', 'OAK', 'IND', 'JAX',\n",
       "       'NO', 'NE'], dtype=object)"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 28,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "merged['team'].unique()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 32,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# add conference and division\n",
    "afc_teams =['BUF','MIA','NE','NYJ',\n",
    "            'BAL','CIN','CLE','PIT',\n",
    "            'HOU','IND','JAX','TEN',\n",
    "            'DEN','KC','LAC','OAK']\n",
    "nfc_teams =['DAL','NYG','PHI','WSH',\n",
    "            'CHI','DET','GB','MIN',\n",
    "            'ATL','CAR','NO','TB',\n",
    "            'ARI','LAR','SF','SEA']\n",
    "afceast = ['BUF','MIA','NE','NYJ']\n",
    "afcnorth = ['BAL','CIN','CLE','PIT']\n",
    "afcsouth = ['HOU','IND','JAX','TEN']\n",
    "afcwest = ['DEN','KC','LAC','OAK']\n",
    "nfceast = ['DAL','NYG','PHI','WSH']\n",
    "nfcnorth = ['CHI','DET','GB','MIN']\n",
    "nfcsouth = ['ATL','CAR','NO','TB']\n",
    "nfcwest = ['ARI','LAR','SF','SEA']\n",
    "\n",
    "merged['conference'] = np.where(merged['team'].isin(afc_teams), 'AFC',\n",
    "                                np.where(merged['team'].isin(nfc_teams), 'NFC',''))\n",
    "merged['division'] = np.where(merged['team'].isin(afceast), 'AFC East',(\n",
    "                        np.where(merged['team'].isin(afcnorth), 'AFC North',\n",
    "                           np.where(merged['team'].isin(afcsouth), 'AFC South',\n",
    "                                np.where(merged['team'].isin(afcwest), 'AFC West',\n",
    "                                    np.where(merged['team'].isin(nfceast), 'NFC East',\n",
    "                                        np.where(merged['team'].isin(nfcnorth), 'NFC North',\n",
    "                                            np.where(merged['team'].isin(nfcsouth), 'NFC South',\n",
    "                                                np.where(merged['team'].isin(nfcwest), 'NFC West','')))))))))\n",
    "\n",
    "                        "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 34,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/html": [
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       "\n",
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       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>date</th>\n",
       "      <th>datetime</th>\n",
       "      <th>season</th>\n",
       "      <th>team</th>\n",
       "      <th>elo</th>\n",
       "      <th>probability</th>\n",
       "      <th>conference</th>\n",
       "      <th>division</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/4/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-04</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>SEA</td>\n",
       "      <td>1678.971000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.803040</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/7/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-07</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>PHI</td>\n",
       "      <td>1528.197000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.791858</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC East</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/7/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-07</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>PIT</td>\n",
       "      <td>1537.231000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.772161</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/7/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-07</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>BAL</td>\n",
       "      <td>1529.779000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.549330</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/7/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-07</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>TB</td>\n",
       "      <td>1436.161000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.392988</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>5</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/7/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-07</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>DEN</td>\n",
       "      <td>1624.090000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.702028</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>6</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/7/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-07</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>LAR</td>\n",
       "      <td>1512.750000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.643936</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>7</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/7/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-07</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>ATL</td>\n",
       "      <td>1458.825000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.428661</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>8</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/7/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-07</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>CHI</td>\n",
       "      <td>1493.573000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.643228</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>9</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/7/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-07</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>DAL</td>\n",
       "      <td>1501.041000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.384515</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC East</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>10</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/7/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-07</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>HOU</td>\n",
       "      <td>1384.864000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.572006</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>11</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/7/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-07</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>KC</td>\n",
       "      <td>1503.448000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.642306</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>12</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/7/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-07</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>MIA</td>\n",
       "      <td>1482.607000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.391170</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC East</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>13</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/7/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-07</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>NYJ</td>\n",
       "      <td>1465.720000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.715261</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC East</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>14</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/8/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-08</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARI</td>\n",
       "      <td>1551.021000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.580109</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>15</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/8/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-08</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>DET</td>\n",
       "      <td>1472.359000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.560739</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>16</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/11/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-11</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>BAL</td>\n",
       "      <td>1506.570000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.541035</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>17</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/14/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>BUF</td>\n",
       "      <td>1474.887000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.534458</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC East</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>18</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/14/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>CAR</td>\n",
       "      <td>1591.474000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.712281</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>19</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/14/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>CIN</td>\n",
       "      <td>1583.598000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.730886</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>20</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/14/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>WSH</td>\n",
       "      <td>1378.685000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.631383</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC East</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>21</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/14/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>CLE</td>\n",
       "      <td>1384.438000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.349278</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>22</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/14/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>DEN</td>\n",
       "      <td>1635.697000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.794966</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>23</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/14/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>GB</td>\n",
       "      <td>1489.032000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.611497</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>24</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/14/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>MIN</td>\n",
       "      <td>1520.319000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.491592</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>25</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/14/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>SF</td>\n",
       "      <td>1666.188000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.813891</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>26</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/14/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>NYG</td>\n",
       "      <td>1468.302000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.466383</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC East</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>27</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/14/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>LAC</td>\n",
       "      <td>1554.196000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.399816</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>28</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/14/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>TEN</td>\n",
       "      <td>1504.915000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.623055</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>29</th>\n",
       "      <td>9/14/2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014-09-14</td>\n",
       "      <td>2014</td>\n",
       "      <td>TB</td>\n",
       "      <td>1421.375000</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.527488</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1506</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/24/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-24</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>NYJ</td>\n",
       "      <td>1394.789179</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.099560</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC East</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1507</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/24/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-24</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>TEN</td>\n",
       "      <td>1457.027974</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.651121</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1508</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/24/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-24</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>ATL</td>\n",
       "      <td>1601.672526</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.442013</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1509</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/24/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-24</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>MIN</td>\n",
       "      <td>1495.265358</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.299052</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1510</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/24/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-24</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>MIA</td>\n",
       "      <td>1528.766722</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.410273</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC East</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1511</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/24/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-24</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>LAC</td>\n",
       "      <td>1434.369382</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.687383</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1512</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/24/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-24</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>IND</td>\n",
       "      <td>1526.277428</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.329378</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1513</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/24/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-24</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>TB</td>\n",
       "      <td>1517.987015</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.454031</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1514</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/24/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-24</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>SF</td>\n",
       "      <td>1270.213535</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.264211</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1515</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/24/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-24</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARI</td>\n",
       "      <td>1503.707272</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.252231</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1516</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/24/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-24</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>CIN</td>\n",
       "      <td>1506.813880</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.426508</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1517</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/25/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-25</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>BAL</td>\n",
       "      <td>1516.025650</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.270621</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1518</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/25/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-25</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>DEN</td>\n",
       "      <td>1571.174719</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.300380</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1519</th>\n",
       "      <td>12/26/2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016-12-26</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>DET</td>\n",
       "      <td>1553.413308</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.296863</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1520</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>NE</td>\n",
       "      <td>1718.551517</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.650542</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC East</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1521</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>BAL</td>\n",
       "      <td>1507.947141</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.421911</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1522</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>JAX</td>\n",
       "      <td>1325.971989</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.190259</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1523</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>CHI</td>\n",
       "      <td>1337.688188</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.232166</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1524</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>HOU</td>\n",
       "      <td>1502.411495</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.532654</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1525</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>CAR</td>\n",
       "      <td>1544.287817</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.471124</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1526</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>CLE</td>\n",
       "      <td>1252.817835</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.072217</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1527</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>DAL</td>\n",
       "      <td>1655.388965</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.658204</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC East</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1528</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>BUF</td>\n",
       "      <td>1509.964937</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.580447</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC East</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1529</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>SEA</td>\n",
       "      <td>1604.816349</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.815789</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1530</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>NYG</td>\n",
       "      <td>1536.451929</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.413813</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC East</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1531</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>OAK</td>\n",
       "      <td>1598.495825</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.471563</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1532</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>NO</td>\n",
       "      <td>1503.631595</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.244586</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC South</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1533</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>KC</td>\n",
       "      <td>1670.948997</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.751136</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>AFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1534</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>ARI</td>\n",
       "      <td>1526.385953</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.625822</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC West</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1535</th>\n",
       "      <td>1/1/2017</td>\n",
       "      <td>2017-01-01</td>\n",
       "      <td>2016</td>\n",
       "      <td>GB</td>\n",
       "      <td>1593.030315</td>\n",
       "      <td>0.488201</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC</td>\n",
       "      <td>NFC North</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>1536 rows × 8 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "            date   datetime  season team          elo  probability conference  \\\n",
       "0       9/4/2014 2014-09-04    2014  SEA  1678.971000     0.803040        NFC   \n",
       "1       9/7/2014 2014-09-07    2014  PHI  1528.197000     0.791858        NFC   \n",
       "2       9/7/2014 2014-09-07    2014  PIT  1537.231000     0.772161        AFC   \n",
       "3       9/7/2014 2014-09-07    2014  BAL  1529.779000     0.549330        AFC   \n",
       "4       9/7/2014 2014-09-07    2014   TB  1436.161000     0.392988        NFC   \n",
       "5       9/7/2014 2014-09-07    2014  DEN  1624.090000     0.702028        AFC   \n",
       "6       9/7/2014 2014-09-07    2014  LAR  1512.750000     0.643936        NFC   \n",
       "7       9/7/2014 2014-09-07    2014  ATL  1458.825000     0.428661        NFC   \n",
       "8       9/7/2014 2014-09-07    2014  CHI  1493.573000     0.643228        NFC   \n",
       "9       9/7/2014 2014-09-07    2014  DAL  1501.041000     0.384515        NFC   \n",
       "10      9/7/2014 2014-09-07    2014  HOU  1384.864000     0.572006        AFC   \n",
       "11      9/7/2014 2014-09-07    2014   KC  1503.448000     0.642306        AFC   \n",
       "12      9/7/2014 2014-09-07    2014  MIA  1482.607000     0.391170        AFC   \n",
       "13      9/7/2014 2014-09-07    2014  NYJ  1465.720000     0.715261        AFC   \n",
       "14      9/8/2014 2014-09-08    2014  ARI  1551.021000     0.580109        NFC   \n",
       "15      9/8/2014 2014-09-08    2014  DET  1472.359000     0.560739        NFC   \n",
       "16     9/11/2014 2014-09-11    2014  BAL  1506.570000     0.541035        AFC   \n",
       "17     9/14/2014 2014-09-14    2014  BUF  1474.887000     0.534458        AFC   \n",
       "18     9/14/2014 2014-09-14    2014  CAR  1591.474000     0.712281        NFC   \n",
       "19     9/14/2014 2014-09-14    2014  CIN  1583.598000     0.730886        AFC   \n",
       "20     9/14/2014 2014-09-14    2014  WSH  1378.685000     0.631383        NFC   \n",
       "21     9/14/2014 2014-09-14    2014  CLE  1384.438000     0.349278        AFC   \n",
       "22     9/14/2014 2014-09-14    2014  DEN  1635.697000     0.794966        AFC   \n",
       "23     9/14/2014 2014-09-14    2014   GB  1489.032000     0.611497        NFC   \n",
       "24     9/14/2014 2014-09-14    2014  MIN  1520.319000     0.491592        NFC   \n",
       "25     9/14/2014 2014-09-14    2014   SF  1666.188000     0.813891        NFC   \n",
       "26     9/14/2014 2014-09-14    2014  NYG  1468.302000     0.466383        NFC   \n",
       "27     9/14/2014 2014-09-14    2014  LAC  1554.196000     0.399816        AFC   \n",
       "28     9/14/2014 2014-09-14    2014  TEN  1504.915000     0.623055        AFC   \n",
       "29     9/14/2014 2014-09-14    2014   TB  1421.375000     0.527488        NFC   \n",
       "...          ...        ...     ...  ...          ...          ...        ...   \n",
       "1506  12/24/2016 2016-12-24    2016  NYJ  1394.789179     0.099560        AFC   \n",
       "1507  12/24/2016 2016-12-24    2016  TEN  1457.027974     0.651121        AFC   \n",
       "1508  12/24/2016 2016-12-24    2016  ATL  1601.672526     0.442013        NFC   \n",
       "1509  12/24/2016 2016-12-24    2016  MIN  1495.265358     0.299052        NFC   \n",
       "1510  12/24/2016 2016-12-24    2016  MIA  1528.766722     0.410273        AFC   \n",
       "1511  12/24/2016 2016-12-24    2016  LAC  1434.369382     0.687383        AFC   \n",
       "1512  12/24/2016 2016-12-24    2016  IND  1526.277428     0.329378        AFC   \n",
       "1513  12/24/2016 2016-12-24    2016   TB  1517.987015     0.454031        NFC   \n",
       "1514  12/24/2016 2016-12-24    2016   SF  1270.213535     0.264211        NFC   \n",
       "1515  12/24/2016 2016-12-24    2016  ARI  1503.707272     0.252231        NFC   \n",
       "1516  12/24/2016 2016-12-24    2016  CIN  1506.813880     0.426508        AFC   \n",
       "1517  12/25/2016 2016-12-25    2016  BAL  1516.025650     0.270621        AFC   \n",
       "1518  12/25/2016 2016-12-25    2016  DEN  1571.174719     0.300380        AFC   \n",
       "1519  12/26/2016 2016-12-26    2016  DET  1553.413308     0.296863        NFC   \n",
       "1520    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016   NE  1718.551517     0.650542        AFC   \n",
       "1521    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016  BAL  1507.947141     0.421911        AFC   \n",
       "1522    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016  JAX  1325.971989     0.190259        AFC   \n",
       "1523    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016  CHI  1337.688188     0.232166        NFC   \n",
       "1524    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016  HOU  1502.411495     0.532654        AFC   \n",
       "1525    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016  CAR  1544.287817     0.471124        NFC   \n",
       "1526    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016  CLE  1252.817835     0.072217        AFC   \n",
       "1527    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016  DAL  1655.388965     0.658204        NFC   \n",
       "1528    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016  BUF  1509.964937     0.580447        AFC   \n",
       "1529    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016  SEA  1604.816349     0.815789        NFC   \n",
       "1530    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016  NYG  1536.451929     0.413813        NFC   \n",
       "1531    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016  OAK  1598.495825     0.471563        AFC   \n",
       "1532    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016   NO  1503.631595     0.244586        NFC   \n",
       "1533    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016   KC  1670.948997     0.751136        AFC   \n",
       "1534    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016  ARI  1526.385953     0.625822        NFC   \n",
       "1535    1/1/2017 2017-01-01    2016   GB  1593.030315     0.488201        NFC   \n",
       "\n",
       "       division  \n",
       "0      NFC West  \n",
       "1      NFC East  \n",
       "2     AFC North  \n",
       "3     AFC North  \n",
       "4     NFC South  \n",
       "5      AFC West  \n",
       "6      NFC West  \n",
       "7     NFC South  \n",
       "8     NFC North  \n",
       "9      NFC East  \n",
       "10    AFC South  \n",
       "11     AFC West  \n",
       "12     AFC East  \n",
       "13     AFC East  \n",
       "14     NFC West  \n",
       "15    NFC North  \n",
       "16    AFC North  \n",
       "17     AFC East  \n",
       "18    NFC South  \n",
       "19    AFC North  \n",
       "20     NFC East  \n",
       "21    AFC North  \n",
       "22     AFC West  \n",
       "23    NFC North  \n",
       "24    NFC North  \n",
       "25     NFC West  \n",
       "26     NFC East  \n",
       "27     AFC West  \n",
       "28    AFC South  \n",
       "29    NFC South  \n",
       "...         ...  \n",
       "1506   AFC East  \n",
       "1507  AFC South  \n",
       "1508  NFC South  \n",
       "1509  NFC North  \n",
       "1510   AFC East  \n",
       "1511   AFC West  \n",
       "1512  AFC South  \n",
       "1513  NFC South  \n",
       "1514   NFC West  \n",
       "1515   NFC West  \n",
       "1516  AFC North  \n",
       "1517  AFC North  \n",
       "1518   AFC West  \n",
       "1519  NFC North  \n",
       "1520   AFC East  \n",
       "1521  AFC North  \n",
       "1522  AFC South  \n",
       "1523  NFC North  \n",
       "1524  AFC South  \n",
       "1525  NFC South  \n",
       "1526  AFC North  \n",
       "1527   NFC East  \n",
       "1528   AFC East  \n",
       "1529   NFC West  \n",
       "1530   NFC East  \n",
       "1531   AFC West  \n",
       "1532  NFC South  \n",
       "1533   AFC West  \n",
       "1534   NFC West  \n",
       "1535  NFC North  \n",
       "\n",
       "[1536 rows x 8 columns]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 34,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "merged.sort_values(['season','datetime','probability'],ascending=[True,True,False])\n",
    "merged.reset_index(inplace=True, drop=True)\n",
    "merged"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 35,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "date           0\n",
       "datetime       0\n",
       "season         0\n",
       "team           0\n",
       "elo            0\n",
       "probability    0\n",
       "conference     0\n",
       "division       0\n",
       "dtype: int64"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 35,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "# Check for nulls\n",
    "merged.isnull().sum()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 36,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "merged.to_csv('data/nfl_elo.csv', index=False)"
   ]
  }
 ],
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   "codemirror_mode": {
    "name": "ipython",
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