NINO34+PDO+AMO #26
Replies: 30 comments
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NINO34Added a LOCKST for locking tides less than 40 days long
CC 0.1393357345 0.6256675688 5 1 PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GeoEnergyMath\qbo> ../io/backup nino34_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt877-anti4c-wow-pt14
CC 0.1219870982 0.7011201040 1 1 Status: 3 2 0.79989 0.14942 # 660
CC 0.1543002578 0.7998991854 4 1 PDOStatus: 4 2 0.81873 0.22758 # 60
CC 0.2296188906 0.8187376505 2 1 Status: 6 2 0.70622 0.41630 # 20
CC 0.4307765951 0.7068998281 5 1 Status: 4 175 0.77330 0.39365 # 780
CC 0.4113216630 0.7733210060 2 1 Status: 3 58 0.85352 0.32131 # 5380
CC 0.3213136851 0.8535215631 3 1 ``
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PDOFit from dLOD 100% with wide excluded region, selected 3 LTE modulation to start. Uses $MONTH="-1" Status: 26 2 0.80223 0.26399 # 36520
CC 0.2639834071 0.8022267195 26 1 smaller exclusion interval
CC 0.6164835977 0.8790216169 8 1 |
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Darwin
CC 0.3055335301 0.7666772986 6 1
CC 0.1715223173 0.8235358832 4 1
CC 0.1780098186 0.7186202040 7 1
CC 0.2044867676 0.7316244044 1 1 Status: 10 2 0.68384 0.16476 # 1420
CC 0.2193578153 0.6838979626 12 1 Status: 7 16354 0.73419 0.24030 # 11660
CC 0.2403375426 0.7341927714 7 1 very high CC scratch 10 Status: 5 2 0.65427 0.18811 # 260
CC 0.3144886098 0.6560100706 3 1 |
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Darwin more from scratch #10
CC 0.3004475782 0.7208620592 7 1
CC 0.2023697651 0.7306706435 1 1 The Scratch #10 starter
CC 0.3241842280 0.4681300972 8 1 ../io/restore darwin_exc1930-1990-scratch10
CC 0.2077781640 0.7210364519 3 1 Status: 7 2 0.72927 0.18009 # 1160
CC 0.2629631258 0.7294181053 6 1
CC 0.2029204780 0.7276378264 1 1
CC 0.2022044003 0.7249879120 7 1 Status: 1 91 0.71610 0.23559 # 700
CC 0.2338994117 0.7171896585 1 1
CC 0.2065772086 0.7339490301 3 1 Status: 7 2 0.74033 0.21425 # 1500
CC 0.2142535777 0.7403271319 7 1 Status: 6 2 0.72836 0.11785 # 940
CC 0.2038009060 0.7284443772 4 1
CC 0.2659470184 0.7197017259 8 1 C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GeoEnergyMath\qbo>copy enso_opt.exe.par enso_opt.exe.par.darwin_exc1930-1990-scratch24a extra harmonic
CC 0.3031043674 0.7110539919 4 1 |
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25 model runs averaged
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Darwin - small training intervalStatus: 27 2 0.76444 0.19577 # 100
CC 0.7648392586 0.2020141262 26 1 Early stoppage
CC 0.4934196979 0.2872627112 32 1 only the 2 harmonics, trend included
CC 0.6214757532 0.2505983227 8 1 remove trend
CC 0.6146817770 0.2058855646 4 1 starting from Scratch #2 include
CC 0.7804278488 0.1361190008 15 1 Status: 24 106 0.77474 0.06198 # 40
CC 0.7779812151 0.1393621255 28 1 |
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Used $env:REL=false with Spread_Max=0.015strarting from scratch #2
CC 0.7574950589 0.2513821506 1 1 All except for excluded 1937-1943Status: 15 2 0.53285 0.14821 # 40
CC 0.3032905561 0.5349129880 25 1
CC 0.4038105035 0.6257386005 32 1 |
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Darwin -- Daily harmonics
CC 0.4510691605 0.6649506835 4 1 The following are for 1960-1990 ! image Status: 5 2 0.63863 0.09470 # 1180
CC 0.2091807253 0.6390786614 4 1 ! image Status: 1 2 0.64975 0.11578 # 2020
CC 0.1210422799 0.6512619242 1 1 ! image Status: 4 2 0.66890 0.11712 # 1780
CC 0.1171250398 0.6689040760 4 1 ! image
CC 0.1069670179 0.6727528730 1 1 ! image Resetting 4 14%
CC 0.2300008658 0.7105503929 5 1 |
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! image Status: 11 2 0.67246 0.24958 # 740
CC 0.2510419100 0.6724801238 11 1
CC 0.2512359064 0.6398560253 30 1 sign flipped on 6.85248390316 Status: 17 2 0.71657 0.20326 # 520
CC 0.2066717200 0.7166692267 17 1
CC 0.2506864975 0.7470584158 3 1 Status: 7 2 0.71788 0.25831 # 1580
CC 0.2580401416 0.7179134293 7 1 Extra Pareto harmonicstatus: 1 2 0.77188 0.17187 # 420
CC 0.2279946836 0.7730929087 2 1 Complement trainingStatus: 1 2 0.78813 0.15427 # 280
CC 0.7904418176 0.2179912404 2 1 |
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PDO
CC 0.2113455366 0.7440746732 2 1 Status: 4 2 0.68745 0.24712 # 255
CC 0.2471822797 0.6874914874 4 1 Status: 8 252 0.65464 0.11136 # 80
CC 0.3176106832 0.6616346161 4 1 Status: 8 26 0.76453 0.26364 # 1110
CC 0.2636415388 0.7645350931 8 1 Status: 2 2 0.71564 0.04418 # 235
CC 0.7173762627 0.2559174659 8 1 |
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Status: 6 2 0.84976 0.21625 # 885
CC 0.8497629299 0.2162371054 6 1 Status: 2 2 0.66681 0.25622 # 130
CC 0.2562292222 0.6668068759 2 1 Status: 8 2 0.74912 0.25193 # 1190
CC 0.2518301719 0.7491285115 8 1 A narrow window 7-9's CC Status: 2 2 0.82074 0.51494 # 80
CC 0.5149368312 0.8207396045 2 1 Appears highly asymmetrical in semi-annual |
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AMOStatus: 4 8301 0.85822 0.59142 # 1720
CC 0.8582215372 0.6030858149 4 1 C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GeoEnergyMath\qbo>copy enso_opt.exe.par enso_opt.exe.par.amo_exc1940-1960-scratchE-incl1880plus1 |
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AMOfrom PDO, slight variation Status: 6 2 0.83464 0.42114 # 1095
CC 0.8345682245 0.4220392015 6 1 Status: 1 2 0.85026 0.48243 # 3145
CC 0.8502650445 0.4824607693 1 1 Status: 2 2 0.85733 0.38509 # 3470
CC 0.8573339558 0.3850896013 2 1 |
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AMOfrom scratch PDO, allowed more LOD variance Status: 2 2 0.86258 0.43621 # 3270
CC 0.8625791967 0.4355444599 2 1 Slightly larger Draconic by 2/3 which was small to begin with, but very good OOB correlation, before 1880 and after 2020 |
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AMOfrom scratch Status: 1 2 0.86137 0.23206 # 50
CC 0.8613697688 0.2320654805 1 1 almost seven 9's CC to dLOD, Started by applying F9=1 with lockt=true to try to get as much out of the monthly harmonic lockf=true. Then relaxed to F9=0 and no filtering. |
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Status: 8 2 0.86539 0.40666 # 75275
CC 0.4066560245 0.8653921585 8 1 Status: 10 2 0.86543 0.27558 # 25275
CC 0.2755453812 0.8654284733 10 1 |
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AMO BiAnnual forcing asymmetricStatus: 2 2 0.76462 0.55401 # 12405
CC 0.7646161434 0.5540245125 2 1 PDO biAnnualmislabellled as AMO
CC 0.7138570660 0.3356839112 7 1 Status: 3 2 0.76413 0.21483 # 1415
CC 0.7641377805 0.2147988816 3 1 NINO34 biAnnual symmStatus: 4 2 0.72770 0.38024 # 8495
CC 0.7277091659 0.3713839344 8 1 Darwin BiAnnualStatus: 3 2 0.66549 0.26906 # 26160
CC 0.6654913168 0.2690595739 3 1 Status: 3 2 0.72407 0.15379 # 3275
CC 0.7241601912 0.2023437836 2 1 |
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https://www.google.com/books/edition/Weather_Cycles/NmHPNAVLcmsC?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=372 slide by 372 years to emulate what happens prior to 1880 |
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Darwin SarosStatus: 1 2 0.80935 0.12870 # 4210
CC 0.8093525649 0.1287016512 1 1 https://chat.openai.com/share/65a67e3b-be1e-440a-8e09-7c6a3c9038d4 |
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Status: 4 2 0.74655 0.64836 # 1880
CC 0.6482033033 0.7465530247 4 1 AMO Mm SarosStatus: 7 2095 0.82101 0.69373 # 4430
CC 0.6937344921 0.8210082776 7 1 |
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Status: 5 2 0.85689 0.52112 # 4715
CC 0.5210783718 0.8568860272 5 1 IOD-E Mm SarosStatus: 4 2 0.72504 0.41344 # 1180
CC 0.4134339673 0.7250416983 4 1 Status: 8 2 0.78229 0.42208 # 1790
CC 0.5034625553 0.7830531382 4 1 IOD-W Mm SorosStatus: 8 2 0.90307 0.48527 # 60
CC 0.5337887759 0.9033474428 8 1 Status: 4 2 0.92954 0.54201 # 18300
CC 0.5420050386 0.9295350784 4 1 |
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Alt directoryAdding in some Draconic and Anomalistic harmonics Status: 1 2 0.76556 0.60332 # 70
CC 0.6033212554 0.7655620219 1 1 Status: 4 2 0.76966 0.52650 # 140
CC 0.5265006234 0.7696605371 4 1 The tidal forcing is common apart from a small jitter. Tho, note that the annual impulse is shifted by a month https://chat.openai.com/share/add1744d-849b-48c3-9a91-4984eae64711 |
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AMOStatus: 2 2 0.85492 0.41623 # 148480
CC 0.8549214568 0.4162423324 2 1 Status: 6 2 0.81604 0.59913 # 70
CC 0.6045362705 0.8160386620 8 1 Catchup mode enabled:TRUE
CC 0.6543828746 0.7820630071 8 1
CC 0.3249365451 0.7401393750 8 1
CC 0.5261786433 0.8316751886 5 1 filter 0.05 Status: 8 2 0.92763 0.61481 # 4130
CC 0.6148111280 0.9276339605 8 1
CC 0.6814533981 0.7333260978 3 1 |
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history The following all have nearly identical tidal forcings |
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AMOImp Month 3 delay month 3 Status: 1 2 0.60667 0.68633 # 140
CC 0.6863250066 0.6066660074 1 1 Name Value IMPMONTH 3 PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GeoEnergyMath\alt> ..\io\backup.bat slope_darwin_month3b_amo-low Status: 5 2 0.67612 0.60692 # 25
CC 0.6071089867 0.6761217392 5 1 Status: 2 2 0.80349 0.46699 # 2540
CC 0.5450323597 0.8035245854 6 1 |
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Aligned dLODStatus: 3 2 0.85581 0.76754 # 25
CC 0.7651510290 0.8558174457 8 1 Status: 2 2 0.83117 0.64766 # 185
CC 0.6476636583 0.8311747013 2 1 Status: 7 2 0.80005 0.73801 # 305
CC 0.7380130521 0.8000538247 7 1 PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GeoEnergyMath\alt> ..\io\restore.bat slope_amo-template-relax3-hi_nino34_series2e
CC 0.6251469304 0.6800038431 8 1
CC 0.3613360909 0.7800457154 2 1 Status: 5 2 0.79632 0.31332 # 35
CC 0.3133222777 0.7963194463 5 1
CC 0.7351753001 0.9006054928 8 1
CC 0.7210351349 0.9131527042 8 1
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GEM2 analyticalStatus: 1 2 0.74534 0.40728 # 30
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The two below have the exact same tidal forcing NINO4
AMO
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The idea here is to use NINO34 and PDO model fits as calibration points for AMO. The similarity between ENSO and PDO with nearly the same dLOD means that we can perhaps keep the tidal factors fixed while the initial stages of AMO are fit. This will constrain the tidal factors, while allowing other factors such as impulse and decay rate to vary and thus capture the shape with the least amount of #DOF.
These are all fit with a double impulse, and a #env:MONTH="-1" offst from 6 month.
259 ../io/backup pdo_amo_month-pt5-slope30-15
269 ../io/restore pdo_amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt875_pt59
280 ../io/backup pdo_amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt875_pt616
286 ../io/backup pdo_amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt875_pt44
293 ../io/backup pdo_amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt875_pt436
294 ../io/restore pdo_amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt875_pt59
296 ../io/restore pdo_amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt875_pt436
PDO ***** MONTH
325 ../io/backup pdo_amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt8845
340 ../io/backup amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt71
348 ../io/backup amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt764
360 ../io/backup amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt853
AMO ****** NO MONTH
363 ../io/backup amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt857
364 ../io/restore pdo_amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt8845
384 ../io/backup nino34_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt7
387 ../io/backup nino34_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt7388
389 ../io/backup nino34_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt774
390 ../io/backup nino34_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt774
392 ../io/backup nino34_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt803
395 ../io/backup nino34_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt88
398 ../io/backup nino34_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt89
NINO34 ******** MONTH
400 ../io/backup nino34_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt92
401 ../io/restore pdo_amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt8845
NINO34 ----------
403 ../io/restore nino34_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt92
PDO ******* MONTH
424 ../io/backup pdo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt870
446 ../io/backup amo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt718
448 ../io/backup amo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt7718
452 ../io/backup amo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt8376
456 ../io/backup amo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt8649
459 ../io/backup amo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt873
461 ../io/backup amo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt88
486 ../io/backup amo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt88_pre1880
488 ../io/restore amo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt88
508 ../io/restore amo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt88
516 ../io/restore amo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt88
526 ../io/restore amo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt88
533 ../io/restore amo_nino4_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt857
AMO based on #424 above
Only a single annual impulse
Status: 6 2 0.79647 0.28919 # 40
CC 0.7970701136 0.3135052390 8 1
0.99914105139:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GeoEnergyMath\qbo> ../io/backup amo_pdo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt8846_pre1880
from
amo_pdo_ref_time_excl_1950_1960_h3_no_locktb_pt37wow-hi-semi-pt35-pt878-hislope-minus1b4-pruneALL1nofilter_pt8846
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