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According to the discussion today, the most likely reason for the negative objective is that the optimal value @GbotemiB thank you so much for sharing the results. feel free to check this explanation and propose a fix 😉 |
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Hi, I am currently working on improving the Monte-Carlo feature in PyPSA-Earth.
Problem Objective
Making decisions is tough in Africa with fast-growing demand and big infrastructure changes. To deal with this uncertainty, I am using a Monte Carlo approach in the PyPSA-Earth model.
I am using Nigeria's Power System as a case study. I ran the simulation using the attached default config file with the Monte-Carlo option added, producing 961 networks. I observed that some of the solved networks had negative objective values.
My understanding of objective values translates to Annual cost which doesn't make sense to be negative.
Here is a plot of the objective values for all 961 solved networks
![image](https://private-user-images.githubusercontent.com/48842684/295934242-7f2a1e07-6257-4991-958e-f314a3916df6.png?jwt=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.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.Kr_hh2ON0_CNzzoX04DSiaxcyHTNVnTH5pPRSsZ6En0)
Here are the distribution plots for the parameters to which uncertainty is applied.
![image](https://private-user-images.githubusercontent.com/48842684/295940200-a3ba55ff-4090-4d1c-81f3-e149a319ae3d.png?jwt=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.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.Bz9RqDCu6hJ_UxL5AsKBJSX_CRRoLgi7ZXNcWSLq4qc)
![image](https://private-user-images.githubusercontent.com/48842684/295940230-41ff1400-1362-40e7-a7ae-3a9317c7bfd8.png?jwt=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.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.vyClEWwfe1vxsOLbmv6U_IRLZiK1Xxm6c3-03Rl8YMo)
![image](https://private-user-images.githubusercontent.com/48842684/295940256-bcda89c8-4c8b-4ffc-9c6f-94b6042cb3f4.png?jwt=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.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.myeJRRDFqpmk3gwdjzmCCdlC5nrL4gLwH8nyyios2CA)
![image](https://private-user-images.githubusercontent.com/48842684/295940280-f1b4459e-023d-4a50-b4c9-24c107feca8a.png?jwt=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.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.5OL7eN44zDgLWwdlyl-oFlOZVJE8cbi3bv6YH25YbQs)
![image](https://private-user-images.githubusercontent.com/48842684/295940313-87805bcb-b7e1-4206-91ac-3ab1fc21ff19.png?jwt=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.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.qNhQvOHFd_qRbjxp2b1YVO4RKHwf8LxoKJ0QcLuI02g)
![image](https://private-user-images.githubusercontent.com/48842684/295940338-588067ab-bfad-4722-a137-cc78b6018afb.png?jwt=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.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.pt5x7uH-haS0onGKzSW21XAjtHA2lczb4UE1Zy6cleI)
![image](https://private-user-images.githubusercontent.com/48842684/295940354-f6737e75-56cd-47a5-b6bb-3f71a464aa92.png?jwt=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.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.EQPofdS3B4XYuYueJ0dnm3gm77Ez4fqeo5pBuWtpOYU)
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